What is the current HST expected move?

As of Sep 30, 2026, Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (HST) has an expected move of 7.74% over the next 16 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $20.71 to $24.19 from the current $22.45. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the HST expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is HST expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (HST) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (HST) operates in the Real Estate sector, specifically the REIT - Hotel & Motel industry, with a market capitalization near $15.33B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 162 people, carrying a beta of 1.10 to the broader market. Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. Led by James F. Risoleo, public since 1980-03-17.

Snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $22.45
Expected Move: 7.7%
Implied High: $24.19
Implied Low: $20.71
Front DTE: 16 days

As of Sep 30, 2026, Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (HST) has an expected move of 7.74%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $20.71 to $24.19 from the current $22.45. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

HST Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. pricing an expected move of 7.74% from $22.45, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the HST implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 7.74%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $20.71 to $24.19. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

HST expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. HST term-structure is in contango (slope 0.015), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. With IV rank at 3.5%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical HST range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing HST structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. HST put/call volume ratio currently at 0.55 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for HST derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $22.45 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 16, 2026	16	27.0%	5.7%	$23.72	$21.18
Nov 20, 2026	51	28.5%	10.7%	$24.84	$20.06
Jan 15, 2027	107	29.4%	15.9%	$26.02	$18.88
Apr 16, 2027	198	27.3%	20.1%	$26.96	$17.94
Jan 21, 2028	478	30.6%	35.0%	$30.31	$14.59
Jan 19, 2029	842	28.7%	43.6%	$32.24	$12.66

Frequently asked HST expected move questions

What is the current HST expected move?: As of Sep 30, 2026, Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (HST) has an expected move of 7.74% over the next 16 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $20.71 to $24.19 from the current $22.45. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the HST expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is HST expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.