How are HOG butterfly max profit and max loss calculated?

Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit. For the HOG butterfly priced from the end-of-day chain at a 30-day expiry (ATM IV 40.74%), the computed maximum profit is $111.34 per contract and the computed maximum loss is -$82.50 per contract. Live intraday quotes will differ as the chain moves through the trading session.

What is the breakeven for a HOG butterfly?

The breakeven for the HOG butterfly priced on this page is roughly $26.18 at expiration, derived from end-of-day chain premiums. Breakeven is the underlying price at which the strategy's P&L crosses zero ignoring transaction costs and assignment risk. The current HOG market-implied 1-standard-deviation expected move is approximately 11.68%; if the move sits well outside the breakeven distance, the structure's risk-reward becomes correspondingly tighter.

How does current HOG implied volatility affect this butterfly?

HOG ATM IV is at 40.74% with IV rank near 27.24%, which is on the low end of its 1-year range. Premium-buying structures (long call, long put, debit spreads) are relatively cheap in this regime; premium-selling structures collect less credit per unit risk.

HOG Butterfly Strategy

HOG (Harley-Davidson, Inc.), in the Consumer Cyclical sector, (Auto - Recreational Vehicles industry), listed on NYSE.

Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells motorcycles. The company operates in two segments, Motorcycles and Related Products and Financial Services. The Motorcycles and Related Products segment designs, manufactures, and sells Harley-Davidson motorcycles, including cruiser, touring, standard, sportbike, and dual models, as well as motorcycle parts, accessories, apparel, and related services. This segment sells its products to retail customers through a network of independent dealers, as well as e-commerce channels in the United States, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. The Financial Services segment provides wholesale financing services, such as floorplan and open account financing of motorcycles, and parts and accessories; and retail financing services, including installment lending for the purchase of new and used Harley-Davidson motorcycles, as well as point-of-sale protection products comprising motorcycle insurance, extended service contracts, and motorcycle maintenance protection. This segment also licenses third-party financial institutions that issue credit cards bearing the Harley-Davidson brand.

HOG (Harley-Davidson, Inc.) trades in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically Auto - Recreational Vehicles, with a market capitalization of approximately $2.69B, a trailing P/E of 12.22, a beta of 1.29 versus the broader market, a 52-week range of 17.09-31.25, average daily share volume of 3.6M, a public-listing history dating back to 1986, approximately 6K full-time employees. These structural characteristics shape how HOG stock options price implied volatility around earnings windows, capital events, and macro-driven sector rotations.

A beta of 1.29 places HOG roughly in line with broader market moves, so the strategy payoff and realized volatility track the index-equivalent baseline. HOG pays a dividend, which adjusts put-call parity and shifts the ex-dividend pricing across the listed chain.

What is a butterfly on HOG?

A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration.

Current HOG snapshot

As of May 15, 2026, spot at $25.44, ATM IV 40.74%, IV rank 27.24%, expected move 11.68%. The butterfly on HOG below is built from the same end-of-day chain, with strikes snapped to listed contracts and premiums pulled from the bid/ask midpoint at a 28-day expiry.

Why this butterfly structure on HOG specifically: HOG IV at 40.74% is on the cheap side of its 1-year range, which favors premium-buying structures like a HOG butterfly, with a market-implied 1-standard-deviation move of approximately 11.68% (roughly $2.97 on the underlying). The 28-day window matched to the front-month expiry keeps theta exposure bounded while still capturing the post-snapshot move; longer-dated HOG expiries trade a higher absolute premium for lower per-day decay. Position sizing on HOG should anchor to the underlying notional of $25.44 per share and to the trader's directional view on HOG stock.

HOG butterfly setup

The HOG butterfly below is built from the end-of-day chain, with each option leg priced at the bid/ask midpoint of its listed strike. With HOG near $25.44, the first option leg uses a $24.00 strike; additional legs (when the strategy has them) anchor to spot-relative offsets. Premiums come from the bid/ask midpoint on the listed HOG chain at a 28-day expiry; the cross-strike IV skew is reflected directly in the per-leg values rather than approximated. Quantity sizing assumes one contract per option leg (or 100 HOG shares for the stock leg in covered calls and collars).

Action	Type	Strike / Basis	Premium (est)
Buy 1	Call	$24.00	$1.93
Sell 2	Call	$25.00	$1.30
Buy 1	Call	$27.00	$0.50

HOG butterfly risk and reward

Net Premium / Debit: +$17.50
Max Profit (per contract): $111.34
Max Loss (per contract): -$82.50
Breakeven(s): $26.18
Risk / Reward Ratio: 1.350

Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit.

HOG butterfly payoff curve

Modeled P&L at expiration across a range of underlying prices for the butterfly on HOG. Each row is one sampled price point from the computed payoff curve; the full curve uses 200 price points internally before being summarized into 10 rows here.

Underlying Price	% From Spot	P&L at Expiration
$0.01	-100.0%	+$17.50
$5.63	-77.9%	+$17.50
$11.26	-55.7%	+$17.50
$16.88	-33.6%	+$17.50
$22.51	-11.5%	+$17.50
$28.13	+10.6%	-$82.50
$33.75	+32.7%	-$82.50
$39.38	+54.8%	-$82.50
$45.00	+76.9%	-$82.50
$50.62	+99.0%	-$82.50

When traders use butterfly on HOG

Butterflies on HOG are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect HOG to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.

HOG thesis for this butterfly

The market-implied 1-standard-deviation range for HOG extends from approximately $22.47 on the downside to $28.41 on the upside. A HOG long call butterfly is a pinning play: it pays maximum at the middle strike if HOG settles there at expiration, with the wing legs capping both the cost and the maximum loss to the net debit. Current HOG IV rank near 27.24% sits in the lower third of its 1-year distribution, where IV often re-expands toward the mean; this favors premium-buying structures and disadvantages premium-selling structures on HOG at 40.74%. As a Consumer Cyclical name, HOG options can move on sector-level news flow (peer earnings, regulatory updates, industry-specific macro data) in addition to HOG-specific events.

HOG butterfly positions are structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward); the modeled P&L assumes European-style exercise at expiration and ignores early assignment, transaction costs, dividends paid before expiry on the stock leg (when present), and the bid-ask spread on the listed chain. HOG positions also carry Consumer Cyclical sector concentration risk; news flow inside the sector (peer earnings, regulatory shifts, supply-chain headlines) can move HOG alongside the broader basket even when HOG-specific fundamentals are unchanged. Always rebuild the position from current HOG chain quotes before placing a trade.

Frequently asked questions

What is a butterfly on HOG?: A butterfly on HOG is the butterfly strategy applied to HOG (stock). The strategy is structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward): A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration. With HOG stock trading near $25.44, the strikes shown on this page are snapped to the nearest listed HOG chain strike and the premiums come straight from the end-of-day bid/ask midpoint.
How are HOG butterfly max profit and max loss calculated?: Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit. For the HOG butterfly priced from the end-of-day chain at a 30-day expiry (ATM IV 40.74%), the computed maximum profit is $111.34 per contract and the computed maximum loss is -$82.50 per contract. Live intraday quotes will differ as the chain moves through the trading session.
What is the breakeven for a HOG butterfly?: The breakeven for the HOG butterfly priced on this page is roughly $26.18 at expiration, derived from end-of-day chain premiums. Breakeven is the underlying price at which the strategy's P&L crosses zero ignoring transaction costs and assignment risk. The current HOG market-implied 1-standard-deviation expected move is approximately 11.68%; if the move sits well outside the breakeven distance, the structure's risk-reward becomes correspondingly tighter.
When should you consider a butterfly on HOG?: Butterflies on HOG are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect HOG to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.
How does current HOG implied volatility affect this butterfly?: HOG ATM IV is at 40.74% with IV rank near 27.24%, which is on the low end of its 1-year range. Premium-buying structures (long call, long put, debit spreads) are relatively cheap in this regime; premium-selling structures collect less credit per unit risk.