What is the HIMS 30-day expected price range?

As of Jul 15, 2026, with HIMS at $37.18 and ATM IV at 118.0%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$12.58, or about $24.60 to $49.76. IV rank is elevated, so the priced distribution is wider than the 1-year typical width.

What does HIMS risk-neutral density tell us?

Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future HIMS price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.

How does HIMS ATM IV translate to a probability range?

ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.

Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) Probability Analysis

Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.

Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) operates in the Healthcare sector, specifically the Medical - Equipment & Services industry, with a market capitalization near $8.29B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 2,442 people, carrying a beta of 2.34 to the broader market. Hims & Hers Health, Inc. Led by Andrew Dudum, public since 2019-09-13.

Snapshot as of Jul 15, 2026.

Spot Price: $37.18
ATM IV: 118.0%
IV Rank: 85.4%
IV Percentile: 96.8%
HV 20-Day: 70.6%
IV Skew 25Δ: -0.048

As of Jul 15, 2026, Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) at $37.18 has an ATM IV of 118.0%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$12.58. IV rank is 85.4% (elevated, distribution priced wider than typical). IV percentile is 96.8%. The 25-delta skew is -0.048: downside tail priced richer than upside, biasing probability mass below spot. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.

How HIMS probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on Hims & Hers Health, Inc. options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 118.0% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the HIMS probability distribution

The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where Hims & Hers Health, Inc. spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 118.0% and spot at $37.18, the 1σ band is approximately ±40.7% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 70.6% runs 47.4 vol points below the current implied, suggesting the chain is pricing more dispersion than the underlying has been delivering.

HIMS risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities

The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. HIMS's put-skewed 25-delta surface (-0.048) means downside risk-neutral probabilities are higher than upside - the empirical bias is well-documented. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.

Trading the HIMS distribution

Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. With HIMS IV rank at 85.4%, the chain is pricing fatter tails than recent realized history; sellers earn the gap on average. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.

Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →

Chart aggregates top-ranked contracts by strike from the institutional-grade nightly options scan. Sparse coverage on long-tail tickers reflects the scan's S&P 500/400/600 + ETF focus.

HIMS highest implied-volatility contracts

Type	Strike	Expiration	Volume	OI	IV	Bid	Ask
CALL	$38.00	Jul 17, 2026	7.4K	5.4K	92.6%	$0.66	$0.68
CALL	$40.00	Jul 17, 2026	6.9K	11.0K	97.2%	$0.21	$0.24
CALL	$39.50	Jul 24, 2026	652	132	111.8%	$1.66	$1.81
CALL	$39.00	Jul 17, 2026	5.3K	4.2K	94.4%	$0.39	$0.42
CALL	$37.00	Jul 17, 2026	3.6K	4.9K	91.8%	$1.10	$1.15
PUT	$36.00	Jul 17, 2026	3.3K	1.3K	92.5%	$0.48	$0.54
PUT	$36.00	Aug 21, 2026	1.2K	454	108.1%	$4.25	$4.45
CALL	$40.00	Jul 24, 2026	2.5K	6.4K	112.8%	$1.49	$1.58
CALL	$36.00	Jul 17, 2026	2.4K	6.7K	92.5%	$1.69	$1.75
PUT	$36.00	Jul 17, 2026	3.3K	1.3K	92.5%	$0.48	$0.54

Top 10 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.

Frequently asked HIMS probability analysis questions

What is the HIMS 30-day expected price range?: As of Jul 15, 2026, with HIMS at $37.18 and ATM IV at 118.0%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$12.58, or about $24.60 to $49.76. IV rank is elevated, so the priced distribution is wider than the 1-year typical width.
What does HIMS risk-neutral density tell us?: Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future HIMS price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.
How does HIMS ATM IV translate to a probability range?: ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.