What is the HIMS 30-day expected price range?

As of May 29, 2026, with HIMS at $25.84 and ATM IV at 80.0%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$5.93, or about $19.91 to $31.77. IV rank is subdued, so the priced distribution is tighter than the 1-year typical width.

What does HIMS risk-neutral density tell us?

Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future HIMS price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.

How does HIMS ATM IV translate to a probability range?

ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.

Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) Probability Analysis

Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.

Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) operates in the Healthcare sector, specifically the Medical - Equipment & Services industry, with a market capitalization near $5.62B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 1,637 people, carrying a beta of 2.42 to the broader market. Hims & Hers Health, Inc. Led by Andrew Dudum, public since 2019-09-13.

Snapshot as of May 29, 2026.

Spot Price: $25.84
ATM IV: 80.0%
IV Rank: 29.2%
IV Percentile: 32.1%
HV 20-Day: 92.1%
IV Skew 25Δ: 0.015

As of May 29, 2026, Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) at $25.84 has an ATM IV of 80.0%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$5.93. IV rank is 29.2% (subdued, distribution priced tighter than usual). IV percentile is 32.1%. The 25-delta skew is +0.015: roughly symmetric wings. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.

How HIMS probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on Hims & Hers Health, Inc. options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 80.0% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the HIMS probability distribution

The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where Hims & Hers Health, Inc. spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 80.0% and spot at $25.84, the 1σ band is approximately ±27.6% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 92.1% runs 12.1 vol points above current implied, an inverted regime where premium buyers are underpaying.

HIMS risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities

The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.

Trading the HIMS distribution

Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. With HIMS IV rank at 29.2%, the chain is pricing tighter tails than recent realized history; buyers get cheaper optionality but need a real catalyst to monetize. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.

Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →

Chart aggregates top-ranked contracts by strike from the institutional-grade nightly options scan. Sparse coverage on long-tail tickers reflects the scan's S&P 500/400/600 + ETF focus.

HIMS highest implied-volatility contracts

Type	Strike	Expiration	Volume	OI	IV	Bid	Ask
CALL	$90.00	Jun 18, 2026	0	802	152.7%	$0.01	$0.03
CALL	$80.00	Jun 18, 2026	1	1.7K	152.6%	$0.01	$0.03
CALL	$70.00	Jun 18, 2026	31	3.9K	152.2%	$0.02	$0.03
PUT	$70.00	Jun 18, 2026	0	449	152.2%	$43.05	$45.25
CALL	$60.00	Jun 18, 2026	22	5.5K	143.6%	$0.02	$0.04
CALL	$55.00	Jun 18, 2026	21	4.8K	137.3%	$0.01	$0.05
CALL	$50.00	Jun 18, 2026	36	12.1K	132.5%	$0.03	$0.06
CALL	$40.00	Jun 5, 2026	11	693	119.8%	$0.01	$0.03
CALL	$48.00	Jun 18, 2026	3	106	117.2%	$0.01	$0.12
CALL	$47.00	Jun 18, 2026	0	557	114.0%	$0.01	$0.12

Top 10 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.

Frequently asked HIMS probability analysis questions

What is the HIMS 30-day expected price range?: As of May 29, 2026, with HIMS at $25.84 and ATM IV at 80.0%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$5.93, or about $19.91 to $31.77. IV rank is subdued, so the priced distribution is tighter than the 1-year typical width.
What does HIMS risk-neutral density tell us?: Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future HIMS price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.
How does HIMS ATM IV translate to a probability range?: ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.