Group 1 Automotive, Inc. (GPI) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Group 1 Automotive, Inc. (GPI) operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically the Auto - Dealerships industry, with a market capitalization near $3.90B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 20,413 people, carrying a beta of 0.87 to the broader market. Group 1 Automotive, Inc. Led by Daryl Adam Kenningham, public since 1997-10-30.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $316.58
- Expected Move
- 10.5%
- Implied High
- $349.71
- Implied Low
- $283.45
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, Group 1 Automotive, Inc. (GPI) has an expected move of 10.46%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $283.45 to $349.71 from the current $316.58. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
GPI Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Group 1 Automotive, Inc. pricing an expected move of 10.46% from $316.58, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for GPI derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $316.58 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 36.5% | 11.1% | $351.85 | $281.31 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 35.6% | 14.8% | $363.40 | $269.76 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 98 | 37.7% | 19.5% | $378.42 | $254.74 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 154 | 38.4% | 24.9% | $395.54 | $237.62 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 189 | 39.7% | 28.6% | $407.02 | $226.14 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 39.1% | 32.0% | $417.99 | $215.17 |
Frequently asked GPI expected move questions
- What is the current GPI expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Group 1 Automotive, Inc. (GPI) has an expected move of 10.46% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $283.45 to $349.71 from the current $316.58. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the GPI expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is GPI expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.