What is the current GNK expected move?

As of Oct 14, 2026, Genco Shipping & Trading Limited (GNK) has an expected move of 11.53% over the next 37 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $22.61 to $28.49 from the current $25.55. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the GNK expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is GNK expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Genco Shipping & Trading Limited (GNK) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Genco Shipping & Trading Limited (GNK) operates in the Industrials sector, specifically the Marine Shipping industry, with a market capitalization near $1.12B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 1,056 people, carrying a beta of 0.93 to the broader market. Genco Shipping & Trading Limited, along with its associated companies, is a global participant in the maritime transport industry, focusing on the delivery of dry bulk commodities across the world's oceans. Led by John C. Wobensmith, public since 2014-07-15.

Snapshot as of Oct 14, 2026.

Spot Price: $25.55
Expected Move: 11.5%
Implied High: $28.49
Implied Low: $22.61
Front DTE: 37 days

As of Oct 14, 2026, Genco Shipping & Trading Limited (GNK) has an expected move of 11.53%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $22.61 to $28.49 from the current $25.55. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

GNK Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Genco Shipping & Trading Limited pricing an expected move of 11.53% from $25.55, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the GNK implied-range chart

The shaded range below shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 11.53%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $22.61 to $28.49. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

GNK expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. GNK term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.068), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window. With IV rank at 6.7%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical GNK range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing GNK structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. GNK put/call volume ratio currently at 0.01 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for GNK derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $25.55 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 16, 2026	2	26.8%	2.0%	$26.06	$25.04
Nov 20, 2026	37	40.2%	12.8%	$28.82	$22.28
Feb 19, 2027	128	33.4%	19.8%	$30.60	$20.50
May 21, 2027	219	36.3%	28.1%	$32.73	$18.37

Frequently asked GNK expected move questions

What is the current GNK expected move?: As of Oct 14, 2026, Genco Shipping & Trading Limited (GNK) has an expected move of 11.53% over the next 37 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $22.61 to $28.49 from the current $25.55. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the GNK expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is GNK expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.