GENI Butterfly Strategy
GENI (Genius Sports Limited), in the Communication Services sector, (Internet Content & Information industry), listed on NYSE.
Genius Sports Limited develops and sells technology-led products and services to the sports, sports betting, and sports media industries. It offers technology infrastructure for the collection, integration, and distribution of live data of sports leagues; streaming solutions comprising technology, automatic production, and distribution for sports to commercialize video footage of their games; and end-to-end integrity services to sports leagues, such as full-time active monitoring technology, which uses mathematical algorithms to identify and flag suspicious betting activity in global betting markets, as well as a full suite of online and offline educational and consultancy services. The company also provides live sports data collection; pre-game and in-game odds feeds; risk management services, including customer profiling, monitoring of incoming bets, automated acceptance and rejection of bets, and limit setting; live streaming services; creation, delivery, and measurement services for personalized online marketing campaigns; and fan engagement widgets for digital publishers that offer live game statistics and betting-related content. The company is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
GENI (Genius Sports Limited) trades in the Communication Services sector, specifically Internet Content & Information, with a market capitalization of approximately $1.08B, a beta of 1.80 versus the broader market, a 52-week range of 3.825-13.73, average daily share volume of 5.8M, a public-listing history dating back to 2020, approximately 2K full-time employees. These structural characteristics shape how GENI stock options price implied volatility around earnings windows, capital events, and macro-driven sector rotations.
A beta of 1.80 indicates GENI has historically moved more than the broader market, amplifying both the directional payoff and the realized volatility relative to an index-equivalent position.
What is a butterfly on GENI?
A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration.
Current GENI snapshot
As of May 15, 2026, spot at $4.26, ATM IV 75.90%, IV rank 30.12%, expected move 21.76%. The butterfly on GENI below is built from the same end-of-day chain, with strikes snapped to listed contracts and premiums pulled from the bid/ask midpoint at a 34-day expiry.
Why this butterfly structure on GENI specifically: GENI IV at 75.90% is mid-range versus its 1-year history, so strategy selection should anchor more to the directional thesis than to the IV regime, with a market-implied 1-standard-deviation move of approximately 21.76% (roughly $0.93 on the underlying). The 34-day window matched to the front-month expiry keeps theta exposure bounded while still capturing the post-snapshot move; longer-dated GENI expiries trade a higher absolute premium for lower per-day decay. Position sizing on GENI should anchor to the underlying notional of $4.26 per share and to the trader's directional view on GENI stock.
GENI butterfly setup
The GENI butterfly below is built from the end-of-day chain, with each option leg priced at the bid/ask midpoint of its listed strike. With GENI near $4.26, the first option leg uses a $4.05 strike; additional legs (when the strategy has them) anchor to spot-relative offsets. Premiums come from the bid/ask midpoint on the listed GENI chain at a 34-day expiry; the cross-strike IV skew is reflected directly in the per-leg values rather than approximated. Quantity sizing assumes one contract per option leg (or 100 GENI shares for the stock leg in covered calls and collars).
| Action | Type | Strike / Basis | Premium (est) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy 1 | Call | $4.05 | N/A |
| Sell 2 | Call | $4.26 | N/A |
| Buy 1 | Call | $4.47 | N/A |
GENI butterfly risk and reward
- Net Premium / Debit
- N/A
- Max Profit (per contract)
- Unbounded
- Max Loss (per contract)
- Unbounded
- Breakeven(s)
- None on modeled curve
- Risk / Reward Ratio
- N/A
Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit.
GENI butterfly payoff curve
Modeled P&L at expiration across a range of underlying prices for the butterfly on GENI. Each row is one sampled price point from the computed payoff curve; the full curve uses 200 price points internally before being summarized into 10 rows here.
When traders use butterfly on GENI
Butterflies on GENI are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect GENI to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.
GENI thesis for this butterfly
The market-implied 1-standard-deviation range for GENI extends from approximately $3.33 on the downside to $5.19 on the upside. A GENI long call butterfly is a pinning play: it pays maximum at the middle strike if GENI settles there at expiration, with the wing legs capping both the cost and the maximum loss to the net debit. Current GENI IV rank near 30.12% is mid-range against its 1-year distribution, so the IV signal is neutral; the butterfly thesis on GENI should anchor more to the directional view and the expected-move geometry. As a Communication Services name, GENI options can move on sector-level news flow (peer earnings, regulatory updates, industry-specific macro data) in addition to GENI-specific events.
GENI butterfly positions are structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward); the modeled P&L assumes European-style exercise at expiration and ignores early assignment, transaction costs, dividends paid before expiry on the stock leg (when present), and the bid-ask spread on the listed chain. GENI positions also carry Communication Services sector concentration risk; news flow inside the sector (peer earnings, regulatory shifts, supply-chain headlines) can move GENI alongside the broader basket even when GENI-specific fundamentals are unchanged. Always rebuild the position from current GENI chain quotes before placing a trade.
Frequently asked questions
- What is a butterfly on GENI?
- A butterfly on GENI is the butterfly strategy applied to GENI (stock). The strategy is structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward): A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration. With GENI stock trading near $4.26, the strikes shown on this page are snapped to the nearest listed GENI chain strike and the premiums come straight from the end-of-day bid/ask midpoint.
- How are GENI butterfly max profit and max loss calculated?
- Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit. For the GENI butterfly priced from the end-of-day chain at a 30-day expiry (ATM IV 75.90%), the computed maximum profit is unbounded per contract and the computed maximum loss is unbounded per contract. Live intraday quotes will differ as the chain moves through the trading session.
- What is the breakeven for a GENI butterfly?
- The breakeven for the GENI butterfly priced on this page is no defined breakeven on the modeled curve at expiration, derived from end-of-day chain premiums. Breakeven is the underlying price at which the strategy's P&L crosses zero ignoring transaction costs and assignment risk. The current GENI market-implied 1-standard-deviation expected move is approximately 21.76%; if the move sits well outside the breakeven distance, the structure's risk-reward becomes correspondingly tighter.
- When should you consider a butterfly on GENI?
- Butterflies on GENI are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect GENI to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.
- How does current GENI implied volatility affect this butterfly?
- GENI ATM IV is at 75.90% with IV rank near 30.12%, which is mid-range against its 1-year history. Strategy selection depends more on directional thesis and expected move than on a strong IV signal.