Gemini Space Station, Inc. Class A Common Stock (GEMI) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Gemini Space Station, Inc. Class A Common Stock (GEMI) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Financial - Capital Markets industry, with a market capitalization near $598.9M, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 700 people, carrying a beta of 1.90 to the broader market. Gemini Space Station, Inc. Led by Tyler Winklevoss, public since 2025-09-12.
Snapshot as of May 14, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $5.21
- Expected Move
- 32.2%
- Implied High
- $6.89
- Implied Low
- $3.53
- Front DTE
- 29 days
As of May 14, 2026, Gemini Space Station, Inc. Class A Common Stock (GEMI) has an expected move of 32.19%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $3.53 to $6.89 from the current $5.21. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
GEMI Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Gemini Space Station, Inc. Class A Common Stock pricing an expected move of 32.19% from $5.21, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for GEMI derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $5.21 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | 1 | 236.9% | 12.4% | $5.86 | $4.56 |
| May 22, 2026 | 8 | 130.1% | 19.3% | $6.21 | $4.21 |
| May 29, 2026 | 15 | 119.8% | 24.3% | $6.48 | $3.94 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 22 | 117.2% | 28.8% | $6.71 | $3.71 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 29 | 112.3% | 31.7% | $6.86 | $3.56 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 35 | 112.2% | 34.7% | $7.02 | $3.40 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 43 | 112.6% | 38.6% | $7.22 | $3.20 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 64 | 105.5% | 44.2% | $7.51 | $2.91 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 155 | 103.7% | 67.6% | $8.73 | $1.69 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 246 | 104.4% | 85.7% | $9.68 | $0.74 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 617 | 100.8% | 131.1% | $12.04 | $-1.62 |
Frequently asked GEMI expected move questions
- What is the current GEMI expected move?
- As of May 14, 2026, Gemini Space Station, Inc. Class A Common Stock (GEMI) has an expected move of 32.19% over the next 29 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $3.53 to $6.89 from the current $5.21. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the GEMI expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is GEMI expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.