Fabrinet (FN) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Fabrinet (FN) operates in the Technology sector, specifically the Hardware, Equipment & Parts industry, with a market capitalization near $15.33B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 21,521 people, carrying a beta of 1.22 to the broader market. Fabrinet provides optical packaging and precision optical, electro-mechanical, and electronic manufacturing services in North America, the Asia-Pacific, and Europe. Led by Seamus Grady, public since 2010-06-22.
Snapshot as of Oct 14, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $393.74
- Expected Move
- 23.0%
- Implied High
- $484.38
- Implied Low
- $303.10
- Front DTE
- 37 days
As of Oct 14, 2026, Fabrinet (FN) has an expected move of 23.02%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $303.10 to $484.38 from the current $393.74. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
FN Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Fabrinet pricing an expected move of 23.02% from $393.74, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the FN implied-range chart
The shaded range below shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 23.02%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $303.10 to $484.38. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
FN expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. FN term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.079), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.
Sizing FN structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. FN put/call volume ratio currently at 0.50 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for FN derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $393.74 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 2 | 87.8% | 6.5% | $419.33 | $368.15 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 37 | 80.3% | 25.6% | $494.41 | $293.07 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 65 | 72.4% | 30.6% | $514.04 | $273.44 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 93 | 68.2% | 34.4% | $529.29 | $258.19 |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 184 | 65.2% | 46.3% | $576.01 | $211.47 |
| Jul 16, 2027 | 275 | 64.2% | 55.7% | $613.15 | $174.33 |
| Oct 15, 2027 | 366 | 64.8% | 64.9% | $649.23 | $138.25 |
| Dec 17, 2027 | 429 | 65.1% | 70.6% | $671.63 | $115.85 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 464 | 65.0% | 73.3% | $682.30 | $105.18 |
| Jan 19, 2029 | 828 | 65.1% | 98.1% | $779.80 | $7.68 |
Frequently asked FN expected move questions
- What is the current FN expected move?
- As of Oct 14, 2026, Fabrinet (FN) has an expected move of 23.02% over the next 37 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $303.10 to $484.38 from the current $393.74. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the FN expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is FN expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.