What is the current FN expected move?

As of Aug 14, 2026, Fabrinet (FN) has an expected move of 23.19% over the next 35 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $440.48 to $706.50 from the current $573.49. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the FN expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is FN expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Fabrinet (FN) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Fabrinet (FN) operates in the Technology sector, specifically the Hardware, Equipment & Parts industry, with a market capitalization near $20.49B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 16,457 people, carrying a beta of 1.22 to the broader market. Fabrinet provides optical packaging and precision optical, electro-mechanical, and electronic manufacturing services in North America, the Asia-Pacific, and Europe. Led by Seamus Grady, public since 2010-06-22.

Snapshot as of Aug 14, 2026.

Spot Price: $573.49
Expected Move: 23.2%
Implied High: $706.50
Implied Low: $440.48
Front DTE: 35 days

As of Aug 14, 2026, Fabrinet (FN) has an expected move of 23.19%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $440.48 to $706.50 from the current $573.49. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

FN Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Fabrinet pricing an expected move of 23.19% from $573.49, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the FN implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 23.19%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $440.48 to $706.50. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

FN expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. FN term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.055), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.

Sizing FN structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. FN put/call volume ratio currently at 1.37 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for FN derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $573.49 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Aug 21, 2026	7	114.5%	15.9%	$664.43	$482.55
Sep 18, 2026	35	80.9%	25.1%	$717.16	$429.82
Oct 16, 2026	63	75.4%	31.3%	$753.14	$393.84
Nov 20, 2026	98	80.5%	41.7%	$812.70	$334.28
Dec 18, 2026	126	79.1%	46.5%	$840.02	$306.96
Jan 15, 2027	154	77.7%	50.5%	$862.93	$284.05
Apr 16, 2027	245	77.8%	63.7%	$939.04	$207.94
Jul 16, 2027	336	78.1%	74.9%	$1003.22	$143.76
Oct 15, 2027	427	78.2%	84.6%	$1058.56	$88.42
Dec 17, 2027	490	79.1%	91.6%	$1099.09	$47.89

FN highest implied-volatility contracts

Type	Strike	Expiration	Volume	OI	IV	Bid	Ask
PUT	$350.00	Aug 21, 2026	1	143	126.4%	$0.05	$0.50
PUT	$400.00	Aug 21, 2026	13	221	126.4%	$0.30	$0.70
PUT	$440.00	Aug 21, 2026	27	114	122.2%	$1.05	$3.20

Top 3 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.

Frequently asked FN expected move questions

What is the current FN expected move?: As of Aug 14, 2026, Fabrinet (FN) has an expected move of 23.19% over the next 35 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $440.48 to $706.50 from the current $573.49. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the FN expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is FN expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.