What is the current FIGR expected move?

As of Jun 29, 2026, Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock (FIGR) has an expected move of 23.59% over the next 32 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $20.79 to $33.63 from the current $27.21. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the FIGR expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is FIGR expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock (FIGR) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock (FIGR) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Financial - Capital Markets industry, with a market capitalization near $4.91B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 530 people, carrying a beta of -0.51 to the broader market. Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Led by Michael Benjamin Tannenbaum, public since 2025-09-11.

Snapshot as of Jun 29, 2026.

Spot Price: $27.21
Expected Move: 23.6%
Implied High: $33.63
Implied Low: $20.79
Front DTE: 32 days

As of Jun 29, 2026, Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock (FIGR) has an expected move of 23.59%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $20.79 to $33.63 from the current $27.21. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

FIGR Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock pricing an expected move of 23.59% from $27.21, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the FIGR implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 23.59%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $20.79 to $33.63. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

FIGR expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. FIGR term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.025), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window. With IV rank at 20.1%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical FIGR range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing FIGR structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. FIGR put/call volume ratio currently at 0.18 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for FIGR derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $27.21 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Jul 2, 2026	3	90.7%	8.2%	$29.45	$24.97
Jul 10, 2026	11	80.1%	13.9%	$30.99	$23.43
Jul 17, 2026	18	76.4%	17.0%	$31.83	$22.59
Jul 24, 2026	25	79.6%	20.8%	$32.88	$21.54
Jul 31, 2026	32	83.1%	24.6%	$33.91	$20.51
Aug 7, 2026	39	80.6%	26.3%	$34.38	$20.04
Aug 21, 2026	53	85.4%	32.5%	$36.06	$18.36
Nov 20, 2026	144	85.8%	53.9%	$41.87	$12.55
Jan 15, 2027	200	83.5%	61.8%	$44.03	$10.39
Feb 19, 2027	235	84.2%	67.6%	$45.59	$8.83
Jan 21, 2028	571	83.9%	104.9%	$55.76	$-1.34

Frequently asked FIGR expected move questions

What is the current FIGR expected move?: As of Jun 29, 2026, Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock (FIGR) has an expected move of 23.59% over the next 32 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $20.79 to $33.63 from the current $27.21. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the FIGR expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is FIGR expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.