What is the current FIGR expected move?

As of Oct 14, 2026, Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock (FIGR) has an expected move of 24.74% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $18.89 to $31.31 from the current $25.10. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the FIGR expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is FIGR expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock (FIGR) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock (FIGR) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Financial - Capital Markets industry, with a market capitalization near $4.98B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 602 people, carrying a beta of -0.02 to the broader market. Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Led by Michael Benjamin Tannenbaum, public since 2025-09-11.

Snapshot as of Oct 14, 2026.

Spot Price: $25.10
Expected Move: 24.7%
Implied High: $31.31
Implied Low: $18.89
Front DTE: 30 days

As of Oct 14, 2026, Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock (FIGR) has an expected move of 24.74%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $18.89 to $31.31 from the current $25.10. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

FIGR Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock pricing an expected move of 24.74% from $25.10, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the FIGR implied-range chart

The shaded range below shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 24.74%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $18.89 to $31.31. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

FIGR expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. FIGR term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.022), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window. With IV rank at 26.0%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical FIGR range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing FIGR structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. FIGR put/call volume ratio currently at 1.48 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for FIGR derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $25.10 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 16, 2026	2	83.0%	6.1%	$26.64	$23.56
Oct 23, 2026	9	73.7%	11.6%	$28.00	$22.20
Oct 30, 2026	16	76.5%	16.0%	$29.12	$21.08
Nov 6, 2026	23	76.6%	19.2%	$29.93	$20.27
Nov 13, 2026	30	86.3%	24.7%	$31.31	$18.89
Nov 20, 2026	37	84.1%	26.8%	$31.82	$18.38
Nov 27, 2026	44	79.4%	27.6%	$32.02	$18.18
Jan 15, 2027	93	76.5%	38.6%	$34.79	$15.41
Feb 19, 2027	128	77.1%	45.7%	$36.56	$13.64
May 21, 2027	219	77.9%	60.3%	$40.25	$9.95
Jan 21, 2028	464	76.0%	85.7%	$46.61	$3.59
Jan 19, 2029	828	77.1%	116.1%	$54.25	$-4.05

Frequently asked FIGR expected move questions

What is the current FIGR expected move?: As of Oct 14, 2026, Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock (FIGR) has an expected move of 24.74% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $18.89 to $31.31 from the current $25.10. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the FIGR expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is FIGR expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.