What is the current EDU expected move?

As of Oct 14, 2026, New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (EDU) has an expected move of 12.44% over the next 37 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $50.51 to $64.87 from the current $57.69. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the EDU expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is EDU expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (EDU) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (EDU) operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, specifically the Education & Training Services industry, with a market capitalization near $9.25B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 81,054 people, carrying a beta of 0.23 to the broader market. New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. Led by Chenggang Zhou, public since 2006-09-15.

Snapshot as of Oct 14, 2026.

Spot Price: $57.69
Expected Move: 12.4%
Implied High: $64.87
Implied Low: $50.51
Front DTE: 37 days

As of Oct 14, 2026, New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (EDU) has an expected move of 12.44%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $50.51 to $64.87 from the current $57.69. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

EDU Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. pricing an expected move of 12.44% from $57.69, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the EDU implied-range chart

The shaded range below shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 12.44%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $50.51 to $64.87. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

EDU expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. EDU term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.027), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window. With IV rank at 10.7%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical EDU range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing EDU structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. EDU put/call volume ratio currently at 0.87 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for EDU derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $57.69 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 16, 2026	2	47.3%	3.5%	$59.71	$55.67
Nov 20, 2026	37	43.4%	13.8%	$65.66	$49.72
Jan 15, 2027	93	40.7%	20.5%	$69.54	$45.84
Apr 16, 2027	184	38.7%	27.5%	$73.54	$41.84

Frequently asked EDU expected move questions

What is the current EDU expected move?: As of Oct 14, 2026, New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (EDU) has an expected move of 12.44% over the next 37 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $50.51 to $64.87 from the current $57.69. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the EDU expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is EDU expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.