Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) operates in the Communication Services sector, specifically the Internet Content & Information industry, with a market capitalization near $2.15B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 31 people, carrying a beta of 4.10 to the broader market. Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. Led by Devin G. Nunes, public since 1970-01-02.
Snapshot as of Oct 13, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $7.80
- Expected Move
- 19.0%
- Implied High
- $9.28
- Implied Low
- $6.32
- Front DTE
- 31 days
As of Oct 13, 2026, Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) has an expected move of 19.01%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $6.32 to $9.28 from the current $7.80. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
DJT Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. pricing an expected move of 19.01% from $7.80, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the DJT implied-range chart
The shaded range below shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 19.01%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $6.32 to $9.28. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
DJT expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. DJT term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.029), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.
Sizing DJT structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. DJT put/call volume ratio currently at 0.62 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for DJT derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $7.80 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 3 | 59.8% | 5.4% | $8.22 | $7.38 |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 10 | 58.9% | 9.7% | $8.56 | $7.04 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 17 | 59.2% | 12.8% | $8.80 | $6.80 |
| Nov 6, 2026 | 24 | 63.3% | 16.2% | $9.07 | $6.53 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 31 | 66.7% | 19.4% | $9.32 | $6.28 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 38 | 63.8% | 20.6% | $9.41 | $6.19 |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 45 | 68.2% | 23.9% | $9.67 | $5.93 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 66 | 63.2% | 26.9% | $9.90 | $5.70 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 94 | 64.4% | 32.7% | $10.35 | $5.25 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 157 | 65.0% | 42.6% | $11.13 | $4.47 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 465 | 66.8% | 75.4% | $13.68 | $1.92 |
| Jan 19, 2029 | 829 | 67.0% | 101.0% | $15.68 | $-0.08 |
Frequently asked DJT expected move questions
- What is the current DJT expected move?
- As of Oct 13, 2026, Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) has an expected move of 19.01% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $6.32 to $9.28 from the current $7.80. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the DJT expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is DJT expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.