Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) operates in the Communication Services sector, specifically the Internet Content & Information industry, with a market capitalization near $2.05B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 29 people, carrying a beta of 4.09 to the broader market. Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. Led by Devin G. Nunes, public since 1970-01-02.
Snapshot as of Jun 30, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $7.70
- Expected Move
- 20.1%
- Implied High
- $9.25
- Implied Low
- $6.15
- Front DTE
- 31 days
As of Jun 30, 2026, Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) has an expected move of 20.14%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $6.15 to $9.25 from the current $7.70. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
DJT Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. pricing an expected move of 20.14% from $7.70, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the DJT implied-range chart
The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 20.14%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $6.15 to $9.25. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
DJT expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. DJT term-structure is in contango (slope 0.029), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states.
Sizing DJT structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. DJT put/call volume ratio currently at 0.17 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for DJT derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $7.70 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2, 2026 | 2 | 66.3% | 4.9% | $8.08 | $7.32 |
| Jul 10, 2026 | 10 | 60.6% | 10.0% | $8.47 | $6.93 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 17 | 66.1% | 14.3% | $8.80 | $6.60 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 24 | 66.7% | 17.1% | $9.02 | $6.38 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 31 | 70.7% | 20.6% | $9.29 | $6.11 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | 38 | 73.6% | 23.7% | $9.53 | $5.87 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 52 | 77.0% | 29.1% | $9.94 | $5.46 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 80 | 78.1% | 36.6% | $10.52 | $4.88 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 108 | 79.6% | 43.3% | $11.03 | $4.37 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 143 | 79.0% | 49.4% | $11.51 | $3.89 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 171 | 81.0% | 55.4% | $11.97 | $3.43 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 199 | 80.2% | 59.2% | $12.26 | $3.14 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 570 | 83.6% | 104.5% | $15.74 | $-0.34 |
Frequently asked DJT expected move questions
- What is the current DJT expected move?
- As of Jun 30, 2026, Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) has an expected move of 20.14% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $6.15 to $9.25 from the current $7.70. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the DJT expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is DJT expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.