What is the current CRWV expected move?

As of Aug 21, 2026, CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock (CRWV) has an expected move of 21.58% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $69.26 to $107.38 from the current $88.32. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the CRWV expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is CRWV expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock (CRWV) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock (CRWV) operates in the Technology sector, specifically the Software - Infrastructure industry, with a market capitalization near $49.58B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 2,189 people, carrying a beta of 7.41 to the broader market. CoreWeave, Inc. Led by Michael N. Intrator, public since 2025-03-28.

Snapshot as of Aug 21, 2026.

Spot Price: $88.32
Expected Move: 21.6%
Implied High: $107.38
Implied Low: $69.26
Front DTE: 28 days

As of Aug 21, 2026, CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock (CRWV) has an expected move of 21.58%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $69.26 to $107.38 from the current $88.32. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

CRWV Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock pricing an expected move of 21.58% from $88.32, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the CRWV implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 21.58%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $69.26 to $107.38. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

CRWV expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. CRWV term-structure is in contango (slope 0.002), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. With IV rank at 13.3%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical CRWV range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing CRWV structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. CRWV put/call volume ratio currently at 0.68 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for CRWV derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $88.32 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Aug 28, 2026	7	74.5%	10.3%	$97.43	$79.21
Sep 4, 2026	14	76.8%	15.0%	$101.60	$75.04
Sep 11, 2026	21	74.3%	17.8%	$104.06	$72.58
Sep 18, 2026	28	75.2%	20.8%	$106.72	$69.92
Sep 25, 2026	35	75.4%	23.3%	$108.94	$67.70
Oct 2, 2026	42	76.1%	25.8%	$111.12	$65.52
Oct 16, 2026	56	76.9%	30.1%	$114.92	$61.72
Nov 20, 2026	91	81.6%	40.7%	$124.31	$52.33
Dec 18, 2026	119	80.7%	46.1%	$129.02	$47.62
Jan 15, 2027	147	80.4%	51.0%	$133.38	$43.26
Feb 19, 2027	182	80.2%	56.6%	$138.34	$38.30
Mar 19, 2027	210	81.0%	61.4%	$142.58	$34.06
Apr 16, 2027	238	80.7%	65.2%	$145.87	$30.77
Jun 17, 2027	300	81.4%	73.8%	$153.50	$23.14
Sep 17, 2027	392	81.7%	84.7%	$163.10	$13.54
Dec 17, 2027	483	82.1%	94.4%	$171.73	$4.91
Jan 21, 2028	518	81.7%	97.3%	$174.28	$2.36
Jun 16, 2028	665	81.9%	110.5%	$185.96	$-9.32
Dec 15, 2028	847	81.7%	124.5%	$198.24	$-21.60

Frequently asked CRWV expected move questions

What is the current CRWV expected move?: As of Aug 21, 2026, CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock (CRWV) has an expected move of 21.58% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $69.26 to $107.38 from the current $88.32. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the CRWV expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is CRWV expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.