What is the current CRWV expected move?

As of May 22, 2026, CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock (CRWV) has an expected move of 23.61% over the next 27 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $80.39 to $130.09 from the current $105.24. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the CRWV expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is CRWV expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock (CRWV) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock (CRWV) operates in the Technology sector, specifically the Software - Infrastructure industry, with a market capitalization near $55.26B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 881 people, carrying a beta of 7.80 to the broader market. CoreWeave, Inc. Led by Michael N. Intrator, public since 2025-03-28.

Snapshot as of May 22, 2026.

Spot Price: $105.24
Expected Move: 23.6%
Implied High: $130.09
Implied Low: $80.39
Front DTE: 27 days

As of May 22, 2026, CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock (CRWV) has an expected move of 23.61%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $80.39 to $130.09 from the current $105.24. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

CRWV Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock pricing an expected move of 23.61% from $105.24, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the CRWV implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 23.61%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $80.39 to $130.09. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

CRWV expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. CRWV term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.008), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window. With IV rank at 16.9%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical CRWV range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing CRWV structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. CRWV put/call volume ratio currently at 1.04 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for CRWV derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $105.24 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
May 29, 2026	7	77.2%	10.7%	$116.49	$93.99
Jun 5, 2026	14	80.8%	15.8%	$121.89	$88.59
Jun 12, 2026	21	82.6%	19.8%	$126.09	$84.39
Jun 18, 2026	27	82.7%	22.5%	$128.91	$81.57
Jun 26, 2026	35	81.9%	25.4%	$131.93	$78.55
Jul 2, 2026	41	81.7%	27.4%	$134.06	$76.42
Jul 17, 2026	56	80.8%	31.6%	$138.55	$71.93
Aug 21, 2026	91	85.3%	42.6%	$150.06	$60.42
Sep 18, 2026	119	84.8%	48.4%	$156.20	$54.28
Oct 16, 2026	147	84.3%	53.5%	$161.54	$48.94
Nov 20, 2026	182	85.4%	60.3%	$168.70	$41.78
Dec 18, 2026	210	84.9%	64.4%	$173.01	$37.47
Jan 15, 2027	238	84.0%	67.8%	$176.62	$33.86
Mar 19, 2027	301	84.3%	76.6%	$185.80	$24.68
Jun 17, 2027	391	83.6%	86.5%	$196.30	$14.18
Sep 17, 2027	483	83.3%	95.8%	$206.08	$4.40
Dec 17, 2027	574	83.0%	104.1%	$214.78	$-4.30
Jan 21, 2028	609	82.5%	106.6%	$217.39	$-6.91
Jun 16, 2028	756	81.7%	117.6%	$228.98	$-18.50
Dec 15, 2028	938	80.5%	129.0%	$241.05	$-30.57

Frequently asked CRWV expected move questions

What is the current CRWV expected move?: As of May 22, 2026, CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock (CRWV) has an expected move of 23.61% over the next 27 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $80.39 to $130.09 from the current $105.24. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the CRWV expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is CRWV expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.