What is the current CRWV expected move?

As of Jul 6, 2026, CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock (CRWV) has an expected move of 27.22% over the next 32 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $63.09 to $110.29 from the current $86.69. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the CRWV expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is CRWV expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock (CRWV) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock (CRWV) operates in the Technology sector, specifically the Software - Infrastructure industry, with a market capitalization near $44.60B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 881 people, carrying a beta of 7.13 to the broader market. CoreWeave, Inc. Led by Michael N. Intrator, public since 2025-03-28.

Snapshot as of Jul 6, 2026.

Spot Price: $86.69
Expected Move: 27.2%
Implied High: $110.29
Implied Low: $63.09
Front DTE: 32 days

As of Jul 6, 2026, CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock (CRWV) has an expected move of 27.22%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $63.09 to $110.29 from the current $86.69. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

CRWV Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock pricing an expected move of 27.22% from $86.69, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the CRWV implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 27.22%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $63.09 to $110.29. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

CRWV expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. CRWV term-structure is in contango (slope 0.007), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states.

Sizing CRWV structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. CRWV put/call volume ratio currently at 0.40 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for CRWV derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $86.69 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Jul 10, 2026	4	100.8%	10.6%	$95.84	$77.54
Jul 17, 2026	11	91.6%	15.9%	$100.48	$72.90
Jul 24, 2026	18	91.6%	20.3%	$104.32	$69.06
Jul 31, 2026	25	92.2%	24.1%	$107.61	$65.77
Aug 7, 2026	32	95.8%	28.4%	$111.28	$62.10
Aug 14, 2026	39	96.5%	31.5%	$114.04	$59.34
Aug 21, 2026	46	96.9%	34.4%	$116.51	$56.87
Sep 18, 2026	74	94.4%	42.5%	$123.54	$49.84
Oct 16, 2026	102	93.7%	49.5%	$129.63	$43.75
Nov 20, 2026	137	94.5%	57.9%	$136.88	$36.50
Dec 18, 2026	165	92.8%	62.4%	$140.78	$32.60
Jan 15, 2027	193	91.4%	66.5%	$144.31	$29.07
Mar 19, 2027	256	90.1%	75.5%	$152.10	$21.28
Jun 17, 2027	346	89.2%	86.8%	$161.98	$11.40
Sep 17, 2027	438	88.5%	96.9%	$170.73	$2.65
Dec 17, 2027	529	88.3%	106.3%	$178.84	$-5.46
Jan 21, 2028	564	87.5%	108.8%	$180.98	$-7.60
Jun 16, 2028	711	86.6%	120.9%	$191.47	$-18.09
Dec 15, 2028	893	85.5%	133.7%	$202.62	$-29.24

Frequently asked CRWV expected move questions

What is the current CRWV expected move?: As of Jul 6, 2026, CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock (CRWV) has an expected move of 27.22% over the next 32 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $63.09 to $110.29 from the current $86.69. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the CRWV expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is CRWV expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.