What is the current CRESY expected move?

As of Oct 14, 2026, Cresud Sociedad Anónima, Comercial, Inmobiliaria, Financiera y Agropecuaria (CRESY) has an expected move of 14.54% over the next 37 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $9.56 to $12.82 from the current $11.19. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the CRESY expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is CRESY expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Cresud Sociedad Anónima, Comercial, Inmobiliaria, Financiera y Agropecuaria (CRESY) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Cresud Sociedad Anónima, Comercial, Inmobiliaria, Financiera y Agropecuaria (CRESY) operates in the Industrials sector, specifically the Conglomerates industry, with a market capitalization near $753.2M, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 2,760 people, carrying a beta of -0.06 to the broader market. Cresud Sociedad Anónima Comercial, Inmobiliaria, Financiera y Agropecuaria is a company primarily focused on agriculture, engaging in the production of staple commodities across Brazil and other Latin American nations. Led by Alejandro Gustavo Elsztain, public since 1997-03-19.

Snapshot as of Oct 14, 2026.

Spot Price: $11.19
Expected Move: 14.5%
Implied High: $12.82
Implied Low: $9.56
Front DTE: 37 days

As of Oct 14, 2026, Cresud Sociedad Anónima, Comercial, Inmobiliaria, Financiera y Agropecuaria (CRESY) has an expected move of 14.54%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $9.56 to $12.82 from the current $11.19. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

CRESY Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Cresud Sociedad Anónima, Comercial, Inmobiliaria, Financiera y Agropecuaria pricing an expected move of 14.54% from $11.19, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the CRESY implied-range chart

The shaded range below shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 14.54%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $9.56 to $12.82. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

CRESY expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. CRESY term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.025), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window. With IV rank at 11.0%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical CRESY range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing CRESY structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. CRESY put/call volume ratio currently at 0.67 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for CRESY derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $11.19 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 16, 2026	2	20.6%	1.5%	$11.36	$11.02
Nov 20, 2026	37	50.7%	16.1%	$13.00	$9.38
Feb 19, 2027	128	48.2%	28.5%	$14.38	$8.00
May 21, 2027	219	82.1%	63.6%	$18.31	$4.07

Frequently asked CRESY expected move questions

What is the current CRESY expected move?: As of Oct 14, 2026, Cresud Sociedad Anónima, Comercial, Inmobiliaria, Financiera y Agropecuaria (CRESY) has an expected move of 14.54% over the next 37 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $9.56 to $12.82 from the current $11.19. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the CRESY expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is CRESY expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.