Core & Main, Inc. (CNM) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Core & Main, Inc. (CNM) operates in the Industrials sector, specifically the Industrial - Distribution industry, with a market capitalization near $8.91B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 5,700 people, carrying a beta of 0.93 to the broader market. Core & Main, Inc. Led by Mark R. Witkowski, public since 2021-07-22.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $46.91
- Expected Move
- 14.4%
- Implied High
- $53.67
- Implied Low
- $40.15
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, Core & Main, Inc. (CNM) has an expected move of 14.42%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $40.15 to $53.67 from the current $46.91. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
CNM Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Core & Main, Inc. pricing an expected move of 14.42% from $46.91, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for CNM derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $46.91 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 50.3% | 15.4% | $54.11 | $39.71 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 46.2% | 19.2% | $55.91 | $37.91 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 46.1% | 27.1% | $59.62 | $34.20 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 43.5% | 33.5% | $62.64 | $31.18 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 44.0% | 36.0% | $63.82 | $30.00 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 44.0% | 57.2% | $73.72 | $20.10 |
Frequently asked CNM expected move questions
- What is the current CNM expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Core & Main, Inc. (CNM) has an expected move of 14.42% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $40.15 to $53.67 from the current $46.91. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the CNM expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is CNM expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.