Is CMI options pricing rich or cheap right now?

As of Oct 13, 2026, Cummins Inc. (CMI) ATM IV is 35.5% against 20-day realized volatility of 23.6%. IV rank is 40.7%. CMI options are pricing in more volatility than the stock has recently realized: a positive variance risk premium worth 11.9 vol points.

What is the CMI variance risk premium?

The variance risk premium is the persistent gap between implied and subsequently realized volatility. In equity markets it averages positive because option sellers demand compensation for bearing variance shocks. CMI is currently priced consistently with this premium, which is one input to whether short-vol or long-vol structures carry their typical edge.

What does CMI IV rank mean for strategy selection?

IV rank normalizes the current ATM IV to its 1-year range: 0% is the low, 100% is the high. CMI's current rank of 40.7% signals where current pricing sits in its own 1-year history. High-rank regimes typically favor premium-selling structures (credit spreads, condors, covered calls); low-rank regimes typically favor premium-buying or long-volatility structures.

Cummins Inc. (CMI) IV/HV History

Comparing implied volatility to historical (realized) volatility reveals whether options are priced rich or cheap relative to actual price movement. Persistent gaps can signal trading opportunities.

Cummins Inc. (CMI) operates in the Industrials sector, specifically the Industrial - Machinery industry, with a market capitalization near $73.04B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 67,400 people, carrying a beta of 1.24 to the broader market. Cummins Inc. Led by Jennifer W. Rumsey, public since 1947-10-03.

Snapshot as of Oct 13, 2026.

Spot Price: $528.90
ATM IV: 35.5%
HV 20-Day: 23.6%
HV 60-Day: 27.9%
IV Rank: 40.7%
IV Percentile: 57.9%

As of Oct 13, 2026, Cummins Inc. (CMI) ATM implied volatility is 35.5%. 20-day realized volatility is 23.6%, producing an IV-HV spread of +11.9 vol points. Options are pricing in more volatility than the stock has recently delivered, the volatility risk premium. IV rank is 40.7%.

How CMI iv/hv history Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on Cummins Inc. options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The iv/hv history view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 35.5% and dealer gamma exposure is negative, so dealer hedging amplifies directional moves. Combine the iv/hv history data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the CMI IV vs HV chart

The dual-line chart below tracks ATM implied volatility (forward-looking, what the chain is pricing) against 20-day realized historical volatility (backward-looking, what actually happened). ATM IV currently prints at 35.5%, 40.7% IV rank, against 23.6% realized over the trailing 20 trading days. Implied is pricing above realized by 11.9 vol points, the typical variance-risk-premium positive state in which premium sellers earn the gap. Persistent IV-above-HV is the variance-risk-premium-positive state typical of equity markets; persistent IV-below-HV is rare and usually marks underpriced vol that often expands.

CMI IV/HV regimes and trade selection

CMI IV rank at 40.7% sits mid-range - no structural edge from rank alone. Strategy choice should follow event calendar and the dealer-positioning read.

Using CMI vol history alongside the term structure

The IV/HV gap on this page captures the level of premium; the term-structure slope on the volatility page captures its shape across expirations. Backwardation (negative slope -0.031) indicates acute near-term event risk - near-dated tenors price disproportionate vol. Pair the rank read with the slope read with the event calendar to choose the right tenor for the structure.

CMI IV/HV signal in volatility-cycle context

Equity-vol cycles tend to compress and expand on multi-month timeframes: a typical sequence runs low-IV-rank consolidation (months of flat tape, decaying premium) into a vol-expansion catalyst (earnings miss, macro shock, regime change) into elevated-IV-rank stress (premiums fat, dispersion high) back to mean-reverting compression. CMI's 40.7% IV rank places the ticker in the mid-range of its 1-year window - no strong cycle-position signal. The ratio of HV-20 (23.6%) to HV-60 (27.9%) gives a second cycle indicator: when 20-day exceeds 60-day, recent realization is running hotter than the trailing-quarter average - typically a sign that recent days have already started expanding vol regardless of where IV rank prints. Use the time series below to spot inflection points: meaningful IV/HV gap closures and openings tend to precede regime shifts by a few sessions.

Learn how implied vs realized volatility is reported and how to read the data →

Daily ATM implied volatility and 20-day realized (historical) volatility for CMI over the last ~30 trading days. The IV-HV gap measures the variance risk premium - when IV trades persistently above realized HV, premium-sellers earn the spread; when IV dips below HV, vol is structurally underpriced.

Daily values from end-of-day option_ticker_snapshots. Series sparse on illiquid tickers reflects gaps in the upstream end-of-day options data feed.

Most recent 15 trading days (descending). Older history appears in the chart above.

Date	ATM IV	HV 20d	HV 60d	IV Rank
Oct 13, 2026	35.5%	23.6%	27.9%	40.7%
Oct 12, 2026	31.9%	23.7%	28.0%	29.0%
Oct 9, 2026	28.3%	25.0%	28.5%	17.4%
Oct 8, 2026	30.1%	25.2%	28.5%	23.2%
Oct 7, 2026	28.8%	24.9%	28.7%	19.1%
Oct 6, 2026	29.8%	23.6%	28.5%	22.3%
Oct 5, 2026	28.3%	23.3%	29.5%	17.5%
Oct 2, 2026	28.2%	25.0%	29.9%	17.2%
Oct 1, 2026	28.9%	22.6%	29.7%	19.4%
Sep 30, 2026	29.5%	22.6%	30.6%	21.3%
Sep 29, 2026	30.6%	23.2%	31.0%	24.9%
Sep 28, 2026	30.1%	22.8%	31.5%	23.3%
Sep 25, 2026	29.6%	22.6%	31.5%	21.7%
Sep 24, 2026	31.0%	22.2%	32.9%	26.2%
Sep 23, 2026	30.7%	22.9%	34.3%	29.1%

Frequently asked CMI iv/hv history questions

Is CMI options pricing rich or cheap right now?: As of Oct 13, 2026, Cummins Inc. (CMI) ATM IV is 35.5% against 20-day realized volatility of 23.6%. IV rank is 40.7%. CMI options are pricing in more volatility than the stock has recently realized: a positive variance risk premium worth 11.9 vol points.
What is the CMI variance risk premium?: The variance risk premium is the persistent gap between implied and subsequently realized volatility. In equity markets it averages positive because option sellers demand compensation for bearing variance shocks. CMI is currently priced consistently with this premium, which is one input to whether short-vol or long-vol structures carry their typical edge.
What does CMI IV rank mean for strategy selection?: IV rank normalizes the current ATM IV to its 1-year range: 0% is the low, 100% is the high. CMI's current rank of 40.7% signals where current pricing sits in its own 1-year history. High-rank regimes typically favor premium-selling structures (credit spreads, condors, covered calls); low-rank regimes typically favor premium-buying or long-volatility structures.