CMG Iron Condor Strategy
CMG (Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.), in the Consumer Cyclical sector, (Restaurants industry), listed on NYSE.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. As of February 15, 2022, it owned and operated approximately 3,000 restaurants in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and rest of Europe. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California.
CMG (Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.) trades in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically Restaurants, with a market capitalization of approximately $41.21B, a trailing P/E of 28.72, a beta of 1.03 versus the broader market, a 52-week range of 29.75-58.42, average daily share volume of 16.2M, a public-listing history dating back to 2006, approximately 131K full-time employees. These structural characteristics shape how CMG stock options price implied volatility around earnings windows, capital events, and macro-driven sector rotations.
A beta of 1.03 places CMG roughly in line with broader market moves, so the strategy payoff and realized volatility track the index-equivalent baseline.
What is a iron condor on CMG?
An iron condor sells a call spread and a put spread at strikes outside spot, collecting net premium that is kept if the underlying stays inside the inner short strikes.
Current CMG snapshot
As of May 15, 2026, spot at $32.66, ATM IV 36.00%, IV rank 31.98%, expected move 10.32%. The iron condor on CMG below is built from the same end-of-day chain, with strikes snapped to listed contracts and premiums pulled from the bid/ask midpoint at a 28-day expiry.
Why this iron condor structure on CMG specifically: CMG IV at 36.00% is mid-range versus its 1-year history, so the credit collected on a CMG iron condor sits in line with its long-run distribution, with a market-implied 1-standard-deviation move of approximately 10.32% (roughly $3.37 on the underlying). The 28-day window matched to the front-month expiry keeps theta exposure bounded while still capturing the post-snapshot move; longer-dated CMG expiries trade a higher absolute premium for lower per-day decay. Position sizing on CMG should anchor to the underlying notional of $32.66 per share and to the trader's directional view on CMG stock.
CMG iron condor setup
The CMG iron condor below is built from the end-of-day chain, with each option leg priced at the bid/ask midpoint of its listed strike. With CMG near $32.66, the first option leg uses a $34.00 strike; additional legs (when the strategy has them) anchor to spot-relative offsets. Premiums come from the bid/ask midpoint on the listed CMG chain at a 28-day expiry; the cross-strike IV skew is reflected directly in the per-leg values rather than approximated. Quantity sizing assumes one contract per option leg (or 100 CMG shares for the stock leg in covered calls and collars).
| Action | Type | Strike / Basis | Premium (est) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sell 1 | Call | $34.00 | $0.77 |
| Buy 1 | Call | $36.00 | $0.30 |
| Sell 1 | Put | $31.00 | $0.61 |
| Buy 1 | Put | $29.00 | $0.15 |
CMG iron condor risk and reward
- Net Premium / Debit
- +$93.50
- Max Profit (per contract)
- $93.50
- Max Loss (per contract)
- -$106.50
- Breakeven(s)
- $30.07, $34.94
- Risk / Reward Ratio
- 0.878
Max profit equals the net credit times 100 inside the inner strikes; max loss equals wing width minus credit times 100. Two breakevens at inner strikes plus and minus the credit.
CMG iron condor payoff curve
Modeled P&L at expiration across a range of underlying prices for the iron condor on CMG. Each row is one sampled price point from the computed payoff curve; the full curve uses 200 price points internally before being summarized into 10 rows here.
| Underlying Price | % From Spot | P&L at Expiration |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | -100.0% | -$106.50 |
| $7.23 | -77.9% | -$106.50 |
| $14.45 | -55.8% | -$106.50 |
| $21.67 | -33.6% | -$106.50 |
| $28.89 | -11.5% | -$106.50 |
| $36.11 | +10.6% | -$106.50 |
| $43.33 | +32.7% | -$106.50 |
| $50.55 | +54.8% | -$106.50 |
| $57.77 | +76.9% | -$106.50 |
| $64.99 | +99.0% | -$106.50 |
When traders use iron condor on CMG
Iron condors on CMG are a delta-neutral premium-collection structure that profits if CMG stock stays inside the inner short strikes; short strikes typically sit near 1 standard deviation from spot.
CMG thesis for this iron condor
The market-implied 1-standard-deviation range for CMG extends from approximately $29.29 on the downside to $36.03 on the upside. A CMG iron condor is a delta-neutral premium-collection structure that pays off when CMG stays inside the inner short strikes through expiration; the wing width should reflect the trader's tolerance for the maximum loss scenario where the underlying breaches an outer strike. Current CMG IV rank near 31.98% is mid-range against its 1-year distribution, so the IV signal is neutral; the iron condor thesis on CMG should anchor more to the directional view and the expected-move geometry. As a Consumer Cyclical name, CMG options can move on sector-level news flow (peer earnings, regulatory updates, industry-specific macro data) in addition to CMG-specific events.
CMG iron condor positions are structurally neutral / range-bound; the modeled P&L assumes European-style exercise at expiration and ignores early assignment, transaction costs, dividends paid before expiry on the stock leg (when present), and the bid-ask spread on the listed chain. CMG positions also carry Consumer Cyclical sector concentration risk; news flow inside the sector (peer earnings, regulatory shifts, supply-chain headlines) can move CMG alongside the broader basket even when CMG-specific fundamentals are unchanged. Short-premium structures like a iron condor on CMG carry tail risk when realized volatility exceeds the implied move; review historical CMG earnings reactions and macro stress periods before sizing. Always rebuild the position from current CMG chain quotes before placing a trade.
Frequently asked questions
- What is a iron condor on CMG?
- A iron condor on CMG is the iron condor strategy applied to CMG (stock). The strategy is structurally neutral / range-bound: An iron condor sells a call spread and a put spread at strikes outside spot, collecting net premium that is kept if the underlying stays inside the inner short strikes. With CMG stock trading near $32.66, the strikes shown on this page are snapped to the nearest listed CMG chain strike and the premiums come straight from the end-of-day bid/ask midpoint.
- How are CMG iron condor max profit and max loss calculated?
- Max profit equals the net credit times 100 inside the inner strikes; max loss equals wing width minus credit times 100. Two breakevens at inner strikes plus and minus the credit. For the CMG iron condor priced from the end-of-day chain at a 30-day expiry (ATM IV 36.00%), the computed maximum profit is $93.50 per contract and the computed maximum loss is -$106.50 per contract. Live intraday quotes will differ as the chain moves through the trading session.
- What is the breakeven for a CMG iron condor?
- The breakeven for the CMG iron condor priced on this page is roughly $30.07 and $34.94 at expiration, derived from end-of-day chain premiums. Breakeven is the underlying price at which the strategy's P&L crosses zero ignoring transaction costs and assignment risk. The current CMG market-implied 1-standard-deviation expected move is approximately 10.32%; if the move sits well outside the breakeven distance, the structure's risk-reward becomes correspondingly tighter.
- When should you consider a iron condor on CMG?
- Iron condors on CMG are a delta-neutral premium-collection structure that profits if CMG stock stays inside the inner short strikes; short strikes typically sit near 1 standard deviation from spot.
- How does current CMG implied volatility affect this iron condor?
- CMG ATM IV is at 36.00% with IV rank near 31.98%, which is mid-range against its 1-year history. Strategy selection depends more on directional thesis and expected move than on a strong IV signal.