Is CMG options pricing rich or cheap right now?

As of Jun 30, 2026, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) ATM IV is 46.8% against 20-day realized volatility of 48.1%. IV rank is 66.8%. Realized volatility currently exceeds implied: an inversion of the typical equity volatility risk premium that often precedes IV expansion.

What is the CMG variance risk premium?

The variance risk premium is the persistent gap between implied and subsequently realized volatility. In equity markets it averages positive because option sellers demand compensation for bearing variance shocks. CMG is currently pricing inverted to the historical pattern, which is one input to whether short-vol or long-vol structures carry their typical edge.

What does CMG IV rank mean for strategy selection?

IV rank normalizes the current ATM IV to its 1-year range: 0% is the low, 100% is the high. CMG's current rank of 66.8% signals where current pricing sits in its own 1-year history. High-rank regimes typically favor premium-selling structures (credit spreads, condors, covered calls); low-rank regimes typically favor premium-buying or long-volatility structures.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) IV/HV History

Comparing implied volatility to historical (realized) volatility reveals whether options are priced rich or cheap relative to actual price movement. Persistent gaps can signal trading opportunities.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically the Restaurants industry, with a market capitalization near $42.75B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 130,504 people, carrying a beta of 0.98 to the broader market. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Led by Scott Boatwright, public since 2006-01-26.

Snapshot as of Jun 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $33.72
ATM IV: 46.8%
HV 20-Day: 48.1%
HV 60-Day: 38.7%
IV Rank: 66.8%
IV Percentile: 74.2%

As of Jun 30, 2026, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) ATM implied volatility is 46.8%. 20-day realized volatility is 48.1%, producing an IV-HV spread of -1.3 vol points. Realized volatility currently exceeds implied, an inversion that can signal a pending IV expansion. IV rank is 66.8%.

How CMG iv/hv history Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The iv/hv history view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 46.8% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the iv/hv history data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the CMG IV vs HV chart

The dual-line chart above tracks ATM implied volatility (forward-looking, what the chain is pricing) against 20-day realized historical volatility (backward-looking, what actually happened). ATM IV currently prints at 46.8%, 66.8% IV rank, against 48.1% realized over the trailing 20 trading days. Implied is currently below realized by 1.3 vol points, an inverted regime where premium buyers are underpaying for the move - rare and often a setup for IV expansion. Persistent IV-above-HV is the variance-risk-premium-positive state typical of equity markets; persistent IV-below-HV is rare and usually marks underpriced vol that often expands.

CMG IV/HV regimes and trade selection

CMG IV rank at 66.8% sits mid-range - no structural edge from rank alone. Strategy choice should follow event calendar and the dealer-positioning read.

Using CMG vol history alongside the term structure

The IV/HV gap on this page captures the level of premium; the term-structure slope on the volatility page captures its shape across expirations. Backwardation (negative slope -0.026) indicates acute near-term event risk - near-dated tenors price disproportionate vol. Pair the rank read with the slope read with the event calendar to choose the right tenor for the structure.

CMG IV/HV signal in volatility-cycle context

Equity-vol cycles tend to compress and expand on multi-month timeframes: a typical sequence runs low-IV-rank consolidation (months of flat tape, decaying premium) into a vol-expansion catalyst (earnings miss, macro shock, regime change) into elevated-IV-rank stress (premiums fat, dispersion high) back to mean-reverting compression. CMG's 66.8% IV rank places the ticker in the mid-range of its 1-year window - no strong cycle-position signal. The ratio of HV-20 (48.1%) to HV-60 (38.7%) gives a second cycle indicator: when 20-day exceeds 60-day, recent realization is running hotter than the trailing-quarter average - typically a sign that recent days have already started expanding vol regardless of where IV rank prints. Use the time series above to spot inflection points: meaningful IV/HV gap closures and openings tend to precede regime shifts by a few sessions.

Learn how implied vs realized volatility is reported and how to read the data →

Daily ATM implied volatility and 20-day realized (historical) volatility for CMG over the last ~32 trading days. The IV-HV gap measures the variance risk premium - when IV trades persistently above realized HV, premium-sellers earn the spread; when IV dips below HV, vol is structurally underpriced.

Daily values from end-of-day option_ticker_snapshots. Series sparse on illiquid tickers reflects gaps in the upstream end-of-day options data feed.

Most recent 15 trading days (descending). Older history appears in the chart above.

Date	ATM IV	HV 20d	HV 60d	IV Rank
Jun 30, 2026	46.8%	48.1%	38.7%	66.8%
Jun 29, 2026	47.5%	47.3%	39.3%	69.3%
Jun 26, 2026	39.8%	48.2%	39.2%	44.2%
Jun 25, 2026	38.2%	47.0%	39.4%	39.1%
Jun 24, 2026	37.3%	46.7%	39.6%	36.2%
Jun 23, 2026	37.0%	46.3%	39.4%	35.4%
Jun 18, 2026	36.4%	44.7%	38.5%	33.3%
Jun 16, 2026	35.2%	44.9%	39.3%	29.5%
Jun 15, 2026	36.6%	45.4%	39.3%	33.8%
Jun 12, 2026	36.6%	45.3%	39.2%	33.8%
Jun 11, 2026	37.2%	44.2%	38.7%	36.0%
Jun 9, 2026	39.1%	40.7%	37.5%	42.0%
Jun 8, 2026	39.0%	44.1%	37.6%	41.7%
Jun 5, 2026	38.9%	46.3%	37.8%	41.3%
Jun 3, 2026	38.2%	45.3%	38.2%	39.0%

CMG highest implied-volatility contracts

Type	Strike	Expiration	Volume	OI	IV	Bid	Ask
PUT	$27.50	Jul 17, 2026	90	89.4K	46.3%	$0.02	$0.03

Top 1 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.

Frequently asked CMG iv/hv history questions

Is CMG options pricing rich or cheap right now?: As of Jun 30, 2026, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) ATM IV is 46.8% against 20-day realized volatility of 48.1%. IV rank is 66.8%. Realized volatility currently exceeds implied: an inversion of the typical equity volatility risk premium that often precedes IV expansion.
What is the CMG variance risk premium?: The variance risk premium is the persistent gap between implied and subsequently realized volatility. In equity markets it averages positive because option sellers demand compensation for bearing variance shocks. CMG is currently pricing inverted to the historical pattern, which is one input to whether short-vol or long-vol structures carry their typical edge.
What does CMG IV rank mean for strategy selection?: IV rank normalizes the current ATM IV to its 1-year range: 0% is the low, 100% is the high. CMG's current rank of 66.8% signals where current pricing sits in its own 1-year history. High-rank regimes typically favor premium-selling structures (credit spreads, condors, covered calls); low-rank regimes typically favor premium-buying or long-volatility structures.