What is the current CL expected move?

As of Sep 29, 2026, Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL) has an expected move of 7.07% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $80.38 to $92.60 from the current $86.49. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the CL expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is CL expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL) operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, specifically the Household & Personal Products industry, with a market capitalization near $68.27B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 33,600 people, carrying a beta of 0.32 to the broader market. Operating globally, Colgate-Palmolive Company and its affiliated entities are engaged in the production and distribution of a diverse range of consumer goods. Led by Noel R. Wallace, public since 1973-05-02.

Snapshot as of Sep 29, 2026.

Spot Price: $86.49
Expected Move: 7.1%
Implied High: $92.60
Implied Low: $80.38
Front DTE: 31 days

As of Sep 29, 2026, Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL) has an expected move of 7.07%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $80.38 to $92.60 from the current $86.49. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

CL Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Colgate-Palmolive Company pricing an expected move of 7.07% from $86.49, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the CL implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 7.07%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $80.38 to $92.60. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

CL expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. CL term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.009), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.

Sizing CL structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. CL put/call volume ratio currently at 0.24 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for CL derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $86.49 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 2, 2026	3	23.7%	2.1%	$88.35	$84.63
Oct 9, 2026	10	21.8%	3.6%	$89.61	$83.37
Oct 16, 2026	17	21.0%	4.5%	$90.41	$82.57
Oct 23, 2026	24	21.7%	5.6%	$91.30	$81.68
Oct 30, 2026	31	25.0%	7.3%	$92.79	$80.19
Nov 6, 2026	38	24.1%	7.8%	$93.22	$79.76
Nov 20, 2026	52	23.0%	8.7%	$94.00	$78.98
Dec 18, 2026	80	22.0%	10.3%	$95.40	$77.58
Jan 15, 2027	108	21.5%	11.7%	$96.61	$76.37
Feb 19, 2027	143	22.5%	14.1%	$98.67	$74.31
Mar 19, 2027	171	22.1%	15.1%	$99.57	$73.41
May 21, 2027	234	22.4%	17.9%	$102.00	$70.98
Jun 17, 2027	261	22.5%	19.0%	$102.95	$70.03
Sep 17, 2027	353	22.5%	22.1%	$105.63	$67.35
Jan 21, 2028	479	22.6%	25.9%	$108.88	$64.10
Jan 19, 2029	843	23.7%	36.0%	$117.64	$55.34

Frequently asked CL expected move questions

What is the current CL expected move?: As of Sep 29, 2026, Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL) has an expected move of 7.07% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $80.38 to $92.60 from the current $86.49. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the CL expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is CL expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.