What is the current CL expected move?

As of Jun 30, 2026, Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL) has an expected move of 7.45% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $84.58 to $98.20 from the current $91.39. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the CL expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is CL expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL) operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, specifically the Household & Personal Products industry, with a market capitalization near $73.67B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 34,000 people, carrying a beta of 0.32 to the broader market. Operating globally, Colgate-Palmolive Company and its affiliated entities are engaged in the production and distribution of a diverse range of consumer goods. Led by Noel R. Wallace, public since 1973-05-02.

Snapshot as of Jun 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $91.39
Expected Move: 7.5%
Implied High: $98.20
Implied Low: $84.58
Front DTE: 31 days

As of Jun 30, 2026, Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL) has an expected move of 7.45%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $84.58 to $98.20 from the current $91.39. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

CL Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Colgate-Palmolive Company pricing an expected move of 7.45% from $91.39, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the CL implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 7.45%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $84.58 to $98.20. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

CL expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. CL term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.006), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.

Sizing CL structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. CL put/call volume ratio currently at 0.04 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for CL derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $91.39 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Jul 2, 2026	2	27.4%	2.0%	$93.24	$89.54
Jul 10, 2026	10	22.4%	3.7%	$94.78	$88.00
Jul 17, 2026	17	23.1%	5.0%	$95.95	$86.83
Jul 24, 2026	24	23.5%	6.0%	$96.90	$85.88
Jul 31, 2026	31	26.3%	7.7%	$98.39	$84.39
Aug 7, 2026	38	25.7%	8.3%	$98.97	$83.81
Aug 21, 2026	52	25.0%	9.4%	$100.01	$82.77
Sep 18, 2026	80	24.8%	11.6%	$102.00	$80.78
Nov 20, 2026	143	25.2%	15.8%	$105.81	$76.97
Dec 18, 2026	171	25.2%	17.2%	$107.15	$75.63
Jan 15, 2027	199	24.7%	18.2%	$108.06	$74.72
Feb 19, 2027	234	24.7%	19.8%	$109.46	$73.32
Mar 19, 2027	262	24.7%	20.9%	$110.51	$72.27
Jun 17, 2027	352	25.2%	24.7%	$114.01	$68.77
Jan 21, 2028	570	26.2%	32.7%	$121.31	$61.47

Frequently asked CL expected move questions

What is the current CL expected move?: As of Jun 30, 2026, Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL) has an expected move of 7.45% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $84.58 to $98.20 from the current $91.39. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the CL expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is CL expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.