CIFR Butterfly Strategy
CIFR (Cipher Mining Inc.), in the Financial Services sector, (Financial - Capital Markets industry), listed on NASDAQ.
Cipher Mining Inc., a technology company, operates in the bitcoin mining ecosystem in the United States. It engages in developing and growing a cryptocurrency mining business that specializes in bitcoin. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is based in New York, New York.
CIFR (Cipher Mining Inc.) trades in the Financial Services sector, specifically Financial - Capital Markets, with a market capitalization of approximately $8.69B, a beta of 3.15 versus the broader market, a 52-week range of 3.02-25.52, average daily share volume of 26.1M, a public-listing history dating back to 2020, approximately 43 full-time employees. These structural characteristics shape how CIFR stock options price implied volatility around earnings windows, capital events, and macro-driven sector rotations.
A beta of 3.15 indicates CIFR has historically moved more than the broader market, amplifying both the directional payoff and the realized volatility relative to an index-equivalent position.
What is a butterfly on CIFR?
A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration.
Current CIFR snapshot
As of May 15, 2026, spot at $20.61, ATM IV 101.27%, IV rank 19.31%, expected move 29.03%. The butterfly on CIFR below is built from the same end-of-day chain, with strikes snapped to listed contracts and premiums pulled from the bid/ask midpoint at a 28-day expiry.
Why this butterfly structure on CIFR specifically: CIFR IV at 101.27% is on the cheap side of its 1-year range, which favors premium-buying structures like a CIFR butterfly, with a market-implied 1-standard-deviation move of approximately 29.03% (roughly $5.98 on the underlying). The 28-day window matched to the front-month expiry keeps theta exposure bounded while still capturing the post-snapshot move; longer-dated CIFR expiries trade a higher absolute premium for lower per-day decay. Position sizing on CIFR should anchor to the underlying notional of $20.61 per share and to the trader's directional view on CIFR stock.
CIFR butterfly setup
The CIFR butterfly below is built from the end-of-day chain, with each option leg priced at the bid/ask midpoint of its listed strike. With CIFR near $20.61, the first option leg uses a $19.50 strike; additional legs (when the strategy has them) anchor to spot-relative offsets. Premiums come from the bid/ask midpoint on the listed CIFR chain at a 28-day expiry; the cross-strike IV skew is reflected directly in the per-leg values rather than approximated. Quantity sizing assumes one contract per option leg (or 100 CIFR shares for the stock leg in covered calls and collars).
| Action | Type | Strike / Basis | Premium (est) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy 1 | Call | $19.50 | $2.84 |
| Sell 2 | Call | $20.50 | $2.38 |
| Buy 1 | Call | $21.50 | $2.01 |
CIFR butterfly risk and reward
- Net Premium / Debit
- -$9.50
- Max Profit (per contract)
- $89.35
- Max Loss (per contract)
- -$9.50
- Breakeven(s)
- $19.58, $21.42
- Risk / Reward Ratio
- 9.406
Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit.
CIFR butterfly payoff curve
Modeled P&L at expiration across a range of underlying prices for the butterfly on CIFR. Each row is one sampled price point from the computed payoff curve; the full curve uses 200 price points internally before being summarized into 10 rows here.
| Underlying Price | % From Spot | P&L at Expiration |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | -100.0% | -$9.50 |
| $4.57 | -77.8% | -$9.50 |
| $9.12 | -55.7% | -$9.50 |
| $13.68 | -33.6% | -$9.50 |
| $18.23 | -11.5% | -$9.50 |
| $22.79 | +10.6% | -$9.50 |
| $27.35 | +32.7% | -$9.50 |
| $31.90 | +54.8% | -$9.50 |
| $36.46 | +76.9% | -$9.50 |
| $41.01 | +99.0% | -$9.50 |
When traders use butterfly on CIFR
Butterflies on CIFR are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect CIFR to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.
CIFR thesis for this butterfly
The market-implied 1-standard-deviation range for CIFR extends from approximately $14.63 on the downside to $26.59 on the upside. A CIFR long call butterfly is a pinning play: it pays maximum at the middle strike if CIFR settles there at expiration, with the wing legs capping both the cost and the maximum loss to the net debit. Current CIFR IV rank near 19.31% sits in the lower third of its 1-year distribution, where IV often re-expands toward the mean; this favors premium-buying structures and disadvantages premium-selling structures on CIFR at 101.27%. As a Financial Services name, CIFR options can move on sector-level news flow (peer earnings, regulatory updates, industry-specific macro data) in addition to CIFR-specific events.
CIFR butterfly positions are structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward); the modeled P&L assumes European-style exercise at expiration and ignores early assignment, transaction costs, dividends paid before expiry on the stock leg (when present), and the bid-ask spread on the listed chain. CIFR positions also carry Financial Services sector concentration risk; news flow inside the sector (peer earnings, regulatory shifts, supply-chain headlines) can move CIFR alongside the broader basket even when CIFR-specific fundamentals are unchanged. Always rebuild the position from current CIFR chain quotes before placing a trade.
Frequently asked questions
- What is a butterfly on CIFR?
- A butterfly on CIFR is the butterfly strategy applied to CIFR (stock). The strategy is structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward): A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration. With CIFR stock trading near $20.61, the strikes shown on this page are snapped to the nearest listed CIFR chain strike and the premiums come straight from the end-of-day bid/ask midpoint.
- How are CIFR butterfly max profit and max loss calculated?
- Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit. For the CIFR butterfly priced from the end-of-day chain at a 30-day expiry (ATM IV 101.27%), the computed maximum profit is $89.35 per contract and the computed maximum loss is -$9.50 per contract. Live intraday quotes will differ as the chain moves through the trading session.
- What is the breakeven for a CIFR butterfly?
- The breakeven for the CIFR butterfly priced on this page is roughly $19.58 and $21.42 at expiration, derived from end-of-day chain premiums. Breakeven is the underlying price at which the strategy's P&L crosses zero ignoring transaction costs and assignment risk. The current CIFR market-implied 1-standard-deviation expected move is approximately 29.03%; if the move sits well outside the breakeven distance, the structure's risk-reward becomes correspondingly tighter.
- When should you consider a butterfly on CIFR?
- Butterflies on CIFR are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect CIFR to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.
- How does current CIFR implied volatility affect this butterfly?
- CIFR ATM IV is at 101.27% with IV rank near 19.31%, which is on the low end of its 1-year range. Premium-buying structures (long call, long put, debit spreads) are relatively cheap in this regime; premium-selling structures collect less credit per unit risk.