Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically the Leisure industry, with a market capitalization near $34.67B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 160,000 people, carrying a beta of 2.33 to the broader market. Carnival Corporation & plc operates as a leisure travel company. Led by Joshua Ian Weinstein, public since 1987-07-24.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $24.66
- Expected Move
- 14.4%
- Implied High
- $28.22
- Implied Low
- $21.10
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) has an expected move of 14.43%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $21.10 to $28.22 from the current $24.66. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
CCL Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Carnival Corporation & plc pricing an expected move of 14.43% from $24.66, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for CCL derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $24.66 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 50.0% | 6.9% | $26.37 | $22.95 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 50.0% | 9.8% | $27.07 | $22.25 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 50.1% | 12.0% | $27.62 | $21.70 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 50.4% | 14.0% | $28.10 | $21.22 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 50.2% | 15.3% | $28.44 | $20.88 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 54.6% | 18.5% | $29.23 | $20.09 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 53.7% | 22.3% | $30.16 | $19.16 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 98 | 53.2% | 27.6% | $31.46 | $17.86 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 51.8% | 30.4% | $32.17 | $17.15 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 154 | 52.6% | 34.2% | $33.09 | $16.23 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 189 | 53.1% | 38.2% | $34.08 | $15.24 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 52.3% | 40.3% | $34.60 | $14.72 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 52.8% | 43.3% | $35.33 | $13.99 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 308 | 51.7% | 47.5% | $36.37 | $12.95 |
| Dec 17, 2027 | 581 | 52.4% | 66.1% | $40.96 | $8.36 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 51.7% | 67.2% | $41.22 | $8.10 |
CCL highest implied-volatility contracts
| Type | Strike | Expiration | Volume | OI | IV | Bid | Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUT | $24.00 | Sep 18, 2026 | 20.0K | 18.6K | 52.5% | $2.57 | $2.62 |
Top 1 contracts from the ORATS-sourced nightly scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.
Frequently asked CCL expected move questions
- What is the current CCL expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) has an expected move of 14.43% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $21.10 to $28.22 from the current $24.66. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the CCL expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is CCL expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.