What is the current CARR expected move?

As of Jun 30, 2026, Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) has an expected move of 12.21% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $64.39 to $82.29 from the current $73.34. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the CARR expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is CARR expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) operates in the Industrials sector, specifically the Industrial - Machinery industry, with a market capitalization near $61.12B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 48,000 people, carrying a beta of 1.34 to the broader market. Carrier Global Corporation is a worldwide provider of advanced technological solutions covering heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC), refrigeration, fire safety, security, and intelligent building automation. Led by David L. Gitlin, public since 2020-03-19.

Snapshot as of Jun 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $73.34
Expected Move: 12.2%
Implied High: $82.29
Implied Low: $64.39
Front DTE: 31 days

As of Jun 30, 2026, Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) has an expected move of 12.21%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $64.39 to $82.29 from the current $73.34. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

CARR Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Carrier Global Corporation pricing an expected move of 12.21% from $73.34, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the CARR implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 12.21%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $64.39 to $82.29. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

CARR expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. CARR term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.009), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window. Combined with the 74.5% IV rank, the implied move is meaningfully wider than the typical CARR trailing range, so even premium-selling structures need wide wings to absorb the elevated regime.

Sizing CARR structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. CARR put/call volume ratio currently at 0.10 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for CARR derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $73.34 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Jul 2, 2026	2	43.4%	3.2%	$75.70	$70.98
Jul 10, 2026	10	36.0%	6.0%	$77.71	$68.97
Jul 17, 2026	17	37.6%	8.1%	$79.29	$67.39
Jul 24, 2026	24	40.8%	10.5%	$81.01	$65.67
Jul 31, 2026	31	42.8%	12.5%	$82.49	$64.19
Aug 7, 2026	38	41.9%	13.5%	$83.26	$63.42
Aug 21, 2026	52	41.1%	15.5%	$84.72	$61.96
Sep 18, 2026	80	40.0%	18.7%	$87.07	$59.61
Dec 18, 2026	171	39.7%	27.2%	$93.27	$53.41
Jan 15, 2027	199	38.7%	28.6%	$94.30	$52.38
Mar 19, 2027	262	39.8%	33.7%	$98.07	$48.61
Jun 17, 2027	352	39.6%	38.9%	$101.86	$44.82
Jan 21, 2028	570	39.3%	49.1%	$109.36	$37.32

Frequently asked CARR expected move questions

What is the current CARR expected move?: As of Jun 30, 2026, Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) has an expected move of 12.21% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $64.39 to $82.29 from the current $73.34. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the CARR expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is CARR expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.