What is the current C expected move?

As of Oct 6, 2026, Citigroup Inc. (C) has an expected move of 9.00% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $116.65 to $139.73 from the current $128.19. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the C expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is C expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Citigroup Inc. (C) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Citigroup Inc. (C) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Banks - Diversified industry, with a market capitalization near $220.42B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 219,000 people, carrying a beta of 1.11 to the broader market. Citigroup, Inc. Led by Jane Nind Fraser, public since 1977-01-03.

Snapshot as of Oct 6, 2026.

Spot Price: $128.19
Expected Move: 9.0%
Implied High: $139.73
Implied Low: $116.65
Front DTE: 31 days

As of Oct 6, 2026, Citigroup Inc. (C) has an expected move of 9.00%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $116.65 to $139.73 from the current $128.19. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

C Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Citigroup Inc. pricing an expected move of 9.00% from $128.19, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the C implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 9.00%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $116.65 to $139.73. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

C expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. C term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.007), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.

Sizing C structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. C put/call volume ratio currently at 1.16 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for C derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $128.19 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 9, 2026	3	28.1%	2.5%	$131.46	$124.92
Oct 16, 2026	10	35.6%	5.9%	$135.74	$120.64
Oct 23, 2026	17	32.9%	7.1%	$137.29	$119.09
Oct 30, 2026	24	31.3%	8.0%	$138.48	$117.90
Nov 6, 2026	31	31.4%	9.2%	$139.92	$116.46
Nov 13, 2026	38	30.7%	9.9%	$140.89	$115.49
Nov 20, 2026	45	29.6%	10.4%	$141.51	$114.87
Dec 18, 2026	73	28.9%	12.9%	$144.76	$111.62
Jan 15, 2027	101	29.1%	15.3%	$147.81	$108.57
Feb 19, 2027	136	29.2%	17.8%	$151.04	$105.34
Mar 19, 2027	164	29.2%	19.6%	$153.28	$103.10
Apr 16, 2027	192	29.5%	21.4%	$155.62	$100.76
May 21, 2027	227	29.6%	23.3%	$158.11	$98.27
Jun 17, 2027	254	29.8%	24.9%	$160.06	$96.32
Jul 16, 2027	283	29.8%	26.2%	$161.83	$94.55
Sep 17, 2027	346	30.1%	29.3%	$165.76	$90.62
Jan 21, 2028	472	30.7%	34.9%	$172.94	$83.44
Dec 15, 2028	801	31.1%	46.1%	$187.25	$69.13
Jan 19, 2029	836	31.1%	47.1%	$188.53	$67.85

Frequently asked C expected move questions

What is the current C expected move?: As of Oct 6, 2026, Citigroup Inc. (C) has an expected move of 9.00% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $116.65 to $139.73 from the current $128.19. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the C expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is C expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.