What is the current C expected move?

As of Aug 14, 2026, Citigroup Inc. (C) has an expected move of 7.39% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $128.74 to $149.28 from the current $139.01. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the C expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is C expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Citigroup Inc. (C) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Citigroup Inc. (C) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Banks - Diversified industry, with a market capitalization near $235.94B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 219,000 people, carrying a beta of 1.10 to the broader market. Citigroup, Inc. Led by Jane Nind Fraser, public since 1977-01-03.

Snapshot as of Aug 14, 2026.

Spot Price: $139.01
Expected Move: 7.4%
Implied High: $149.28
Implied Low: $128.74
Front DTE: 28 days

As of Aug 14, 2026, Citigroup Inc. (C) has an expected move of 7.39%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $128.74 to $149.28 from the current $139.01. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

C Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Citigroup Inc. pricing an expected move of 7.39% from $139.01, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the C implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 7.39%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $128.74 to $149.28. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

C expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. C term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.001), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window. With IV rank at 9.4%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical C range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing C structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. C put/call volume ratio currently at 0.72 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for C derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $139.01 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Aug 21, 2026	7	24.7%	3.4%	$143.76	$134.26
Aug 28, 2026	14	25.2%	4.9%	$145.87	$132.15
Sep 4, 2026	21	25.6%	6.1%	$147.55	$130.47
Sep 11, 2026	28	25.8%	7.1%	$148.94	$129.08
Sep 18, 2026	35	25.7%	8.0%	$150.07	$127.95
Sep 25, 2026	42	26.4%	9.0%	$151.46	$126.56
Oct 2, 2026	49	27.2%	10.0%	$152.86	$125.16
Oct 16, 2026	63	28.6%	11.9%	$155.53	$122.49
Nov 20, 2026	98	29.1%	15.1%	$159.97	$118.05
Dec 18, 2026	126	29.1%	17.1%	$162.78	$115.24
Jan 15, 2027	154	29.8%	19.4%	$165.92	$112.10
Mar 19, 2027	217	30.4%	23.4%	$171.59	$106.43
Jun 17, 2027	307	31.2%	28.6%	$178.79	$99.23
Sep 17, 2027	399	31.5%	32.9%	$184.79	$93.23
Jan 21, 2028	525	32.2%	38.6%	$192.69	$85.33
Dec 15, 2028	854	32.8%	50.2%	$208.75	$69.27

Frequently asked C expected move questions

What is the current C expected move?: As of Aug 14, 2026, Citigroup Inc. (C) has an expected move of 7.39% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $128.74 to $149.28 from the current $139.01. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the C expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is C expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.