Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc. (BW) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc. (BW) operates in the Industrials sector, specifically the Industrial - Machinery industry, with a market capitalization near $2.21B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 1,900 people, carrying a beta of 1.08 to the broader market. Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc. Led by Kenneth Young, public since 2015-06-16.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $21.63
- Expected Move
- 30.2%
- Implied High
- $28.17
- Implied Low
- $15.09
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc. (BW) has an expected move of 30.25%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $15.09 to $28.17 from the current $21.63. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
BW Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc. pricing an expected move of 30.25% from $21.63, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for BW derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $21.63 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 108.4% | 15.0% | $24.88 | $18.38 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 100.6% | 19.7% | $25.89 | $17.37 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 102.5% | 24.6% | $26.95 | $16.31 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 103.7% | 28.7% | $27.84 | $15.42 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 108.4% | 33.1% | $28.79 | $14.47 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 99.1% | 33.6% | $28.90 | $14.36 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 101.4% | 42.1% | $30.74 | $12.52 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 98 | 112.4% | 58.2% | $34.23 | $9.03 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 189 | 113.4% | 81.6% | $39.28 | $3.98 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 108.9% | 89.2% | $40.93 | $2.33 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 102.4% | 133.0% | $50.40 | $-7.14 |
Frequently asked BW expected move questions
- What is the current BW expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc. (BW) has an expected move of 30.25% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $15.09 to $28.17 from the current $21.63. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the BW expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is BW expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.