What is the current BULL expected move?

As of Aug 28, 2026, Webull Corporation Class A Ordinary Shares (BULL) has an expected move of 16.62% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $7.77 to $10.87 from the current $9.32. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the BULL expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is BULL expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Webull Corporation Class A Ordinary Shares (BULL) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Webull Corporation Class A Ordinary Shares (BULL) operates in the Technology sector, specifically the Software - Application industry, with a market capitalization near $4.98B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 1,396 people, carrying a beta of 0.54 to the broader market. Webull Corporation operates as a digital investment platform. Led by Anquan Wang, public since 2025-04-11.

Snapshot as of Aug 28, 2026.

Spot Price: $9.32
Expected Move: 16.6%
Implied High: $10.87
Implied Low: $7.77
Front DTE: 28 days

As of Aug 28, 2026, Webull Corporation Class A Ordinary Shares (BULL) has an expected move of 16.62%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $7.77 to $10.87 from the current $9.32. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

BULL Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Webull Corporation Class A Ordinary Shares pricing an expected move of 16.62% from $9.32, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the BULL implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 16.62%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $7.77 to $10.87. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

BULL expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. BULL term-structure is in contango (slope 0.008), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. With IV rank at 2.4%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical BULL range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing BULL structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. BULL put/call volume ratio currently at 0.21 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for BULL derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $9.32 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Sep 4, 2026	7	59.0%	8.2%	$10.08	$8.56
Sep 11, 2026	14	57.8%	11.3%	$10.38	$8.26
Sep 18, 2026	21	57.2%	13.7%	$10.60	$8.04
Sep 25, 2026	28	57.7%	16.0%	$10.81	$7.83
Oct 2, 2026	35	58.5%	18.1%	$11.01	$7.63
Oct 9, 2026	42	54.4%	18.5%	$11.04	$7.60
Oct 16, 2026	49	58.2%	21.3%	$11.31	$7.33
Nov 20, 2026	84	61.5%	29.5%	$12.07	$6.57
Dec 18, 2026	112	59.9%	33.2%	$12.41	$6.23
Jan 15, 2027	140	60.1%	37.2%	$12.79	$5.85
Feb 19, 2027	175	60.5%	41.9%	$13.22	$5.42
Jan 21, 2028	511	59.7%	70.6%	$15.90	$2.74

Frequently asked BULL expected move questions

What is the current BULL expected move?: As of Aug 28, 2026, Webull Corporation Class A Ordinary Shares (BULL) has an expected move of 16.62% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $7.77 to $10.87 from the current $9.32. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the BULL expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is BULL expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.