What is the current BULL expected move?

As of Oct 14, 2026, Webull Corporation Class A Ordinary Shares (BULL) has an expected move of 18.63% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $4.89 to $7.13 from the current $6.01. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the BULL expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is BULL expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Webull Corporation Class A Ordinary Shares (BULL) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Webull Corporation Class A Ordinary Shares (BULL) operates in the Technology sector, specifically the Software - Application industry, with a market capitalization near $3.28B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 1,396 people, carrying a beta of 0.58 to the broader market. Webull Corporation operates as a digital investment platform. Led by Anquan Wang, public since 2025-04-11.

Snapshot as of Oct 14, 2026.

Spot Price: $6.01
Expected Move: 18.6%
Implied High: $7.13
Implied Low: $4.89
Front DTE: 30 days

As of Oct 14, 2026, Webull Corporation Class A Ordinary Shares (BULL) has an expected move of 18.63%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $4.89 to $7.13 from the current $6.01. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

BULL Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Webull Corporation Class A Ordinary Shares pricing an expected move of 18.63% from $6.01, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the BULL implied-range chart

The shaded range below shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 18.63%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $4.89 to $7.13. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

BULL expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. BULL term-structure is in contango (slope 0.079), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. With IV rank at 19.3%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical BULL range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing BULL structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. BULL put/call volume ratio currently at 0.44 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for BULL derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $6.01 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 16, 2026	2	79.1%	5.9%	$6.36	$5.66
Oct 23, 2026	9	66.5%	10.4%	$6.64	$5.38
Oct 30, 2026	16	66.9%	14.0%	$6.85	$5.17
Nov 6, 2026	23	65.2%	16.4%	$6.99	$5.03
Nov 13, 2026	30	65.0%	18.6%	$7.13	$4.89
Nov 20, 2026	37	72.9%	23.2%	$7.40	$4.62
Nov 27, 2026	44	67.4%	23.4%	$7.42	$4.60
Dec 18, 2026	65	69.8%	29.5%	$7.78	$4.24
Jan 15, 2027	93	68.1%	34.4%	$8.08	$3.94
Feb 19, 2027	128	66.3%	39.3%	$8.37	$3.65
May 21, 2027	219	67.8%	52.5%	$9.17	$2.85
Jan 21, 2028	464	66.4%	74.9%	$10.51	$1.51
Jan 19, 2029	828	66.6%	100.3%	$12.04	$-0.02

Frequently asked BULL expected move questions

What is the current BULL expected move?: As of Oct 14, 2026, Webull Corporation Class A Ordinary Shares (BULL) has an expected move of 18.63% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $4.89 to $7.13 from the current $6.01. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the BULL expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is BULL expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.