What is the current BUD expected move?

As of Oct 14, 2026, Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (BUD) has an expected move of 8.63% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $72.58 to $86.30 from the current $79.44. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the BUD expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is BUD expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (BUD) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (BUD) operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, specifically the Beverages - Alcoholic industry, with a market capitalization near $154.84B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 136,805 people, carrying a beta of 0.79 to the broader market. Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (AB InBev) is a global beverage giant involved in the manufacturing, marketing, and retailing of a wide variety of beers, other alcoholic drinks, and soft drinks across the world. Led by Michel Dimitrios Doukeris, public since 2009-07-01.

Snapshot as of Oct 14, 2026.

Spot Price: $79.44
Expected Move: 8.6%
Implied High: $86.30
Implied Low: $72.58
Front DTE: 30 days

As of Oct 14, 2026, Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (BUD) has an expected move of 8.63%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $72.58 to $86.30 from the current $79.44. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

BUD Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV pricing an expected move of 8.63% from $79.44, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the BUD implied-range chart

The shaded range below shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 8.63%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $72.58 to $86.30. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

BUD expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. BUD term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.007), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.

Sizing BUD structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. BUD put/call volume ratio currently at 1.57 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for BUD derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $79.44 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 16, 2026	2	26.7%	2.0%	$81.01	$77.87
Oct 23, 2026	9	23.4%	3.7%	$82.36	$76.52
Oct 30, 2026	16	35.7%	7.5%	$85.38	$73.50
Nov 6, 2026	23	32.8%	8.2%	$85.98	$72.90
Nov 13, 2026	30	30.1%	8.6%	$86.30	$72.58
Nov 20, 2026	37	29.4%	9.4%	$86.88	$72.00
Nov 27, 2026	44	28.1%	9.8%	$87.19	$71.69
Dec 18, 2026	65	26.9%	11.4%	$88.46	$70.42
Jan 15, 2027	93	25.5%	12.9%	$89.67	$69.21
Mar 19, 2027	156	25.9%	16.9%	$92.89	$65.99
Jun 17, 2027	246	26.5%	21.8%	$96.72	$62.16
Sep 17, 2027	338	26.2%	25.2%	$99.47	$59.41
Jan 21, 2028	464	26.2%	29.5%	$102.91	$55.97
Jan 19, 2029	828	26.3%	39.6%	$110.91	$47.97

Frequently asked BUD expected move questions

What is the current BUD expected move?: As of Oct 14, 2026, Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (BUD) has an expected move of 8.63% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $72.58 to $86.30 from the current $79.44. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the BUD expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is BUD expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.