Bitcoin Depot Inc. (BTM) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Bitcoin Depot Inc. (BTM) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Financial - Credit Services industry, with a market capitalization near $1.9M, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 126 people, carrying a beta of 3.13 to the broader market. Bitcoin Depot Inc. Led by W. Alexander Holmes, public since 2022-04-19.

Snapshot as of May 29, 2026.

Spot Price

$0.51

Expected Move

142.8%

Implied High

$1.24

Implied Low

$-0.22

Front DTE

20 days

As of May 29, 2026, Bitcoin Depot Inc. (BTM) has an expected move of 142.77%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $-0.22 to $1.24 from the current $0.51. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

BTM Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Bitcoin Depot Inc. pricing an expected move of 142.77% from $0.51, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the BTM implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 142.77%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $-0.22 to $1.24. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

BTM expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. BTM term-structure is in backwardation (slope -2.738), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window. Combined with the 100.0% IV rank, the implied move is meaningfully wider than the typical BTM trailing range, so even premium-selling structures need wide wings to absorb the elevated regime.

Sizing BTM structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Per-expiration expected move for BTM derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $0.51 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.