Boost Run Inc. Class A Common Stock (BRUN) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Boost Run Inc. Class A Common Stock (BRUN) operates in the Technology sector, specifically the Software - Application industry, with a market capitalization near $2.07B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 3 people, carrying a beta of 3.66 to the broader market. Boost Run, Inc. Led by Andrew John Karos, public since 2026-05-11.
Snapshot as of Jul 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $25.62
- Expected Move
- 39.9%
- Implied High
- $35.85
- Implied Low
- $15.39
- Front DTE
- 30 days
As of Jul 15, 2026, Boost Run Inc. Class A Common Stock (BRUN) has an expected move of 39.94%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $15.39 to $35.85 from the current $25.62. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
BRUN Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Boost Run Inc. Class A Common Stock pricing an expected move of 39.94% from $25.62, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the BRUN implied-range chart
The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 39.94%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $15.39 to $35.85. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
BRUN expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. BRUN term-structure is in contango (slope 0.029), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states.
Sizing BRUN structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. BRUN put/call volume ratio currently at 0.03 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for BRUN derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $25.62 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 17, 2026 | 2 | 188.5% | 14.0% | $29.19 | $22.05 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 9 | 158.0% | 24.8% | $31.98 | $19.26 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 16 | 140.2% | 29.4% | $33.14 | $18.10 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | 23 | 143.5% | 36.0% | $34.85 | $16.39 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | 30 | 139.3% | 39.9% | $35.85 | $15.39 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 37 | 142.2% | 45.3% | $37.22 | $14.02 |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 44 | 138.3% | 48.0% | $37.92 | $13.32 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 128 | 132.4% | 78.4% | $45.71 | $5.53 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 184 | 118.9% | 84.4% | $47.25 | $3.99 |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 219 | 126.9% | 98.3% | $50.80 | $0.44 |
Frequently asked BRUN expected move questions
- What is the current BRUN expected move?
- As of Jul 15, 2026, Boost Run Inc. Class A Common Stock (BRUN) has an expected move of 39.94% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $15.39 to $35.85 from the current $25.62. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the BRUN expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is BRUN expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.