What is the current BMY expected move?

As of Oct 14, 2026, Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) has an expected move of 9.75% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $53.44 to $64.98 from the current $59.21. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the BMY expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is BMY expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) operates in the Healthcare sector, specifically the Drug Manufacturers - General industry, with a market capitalization near $115.76B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 32,500 people, carrying a beta of 0.23 to the broader market. Bristol-Myers Squibb Company operates as a global biopharmaceutical entity, actively involved in the research, development, licensing, production, and worldwide commercialization of its medicinal portfolio. Led by Christopher Boerner, public since 1972-06-01.

Snapshot as of Oct 14, 2026.

Spot Price: $59.21
Expected Move: 9.7%
Implied High: $64.98
Implied Low: $53.44
Front DTE: 30 days

As of Oct 14, 2026, Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) has an expected move of 9.75%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $53.44 to $64.98 from the current $59.21. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

BMY Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Bristol-Myers Squibb Company pricing an expected move of 9.75% from $59.21, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the BMY implied-range chart

The shaded range below shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 9.75%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $53.44 to $64.98. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

BMY expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. BMY term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.004), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.

Sizing BMY structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. BMY put/call volume ratio currently at 0.69 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for BMY derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $59.21 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 16, 2026	2	36.2%	2.7%	$60.80	$57.62
Oct 23, 2026	9	30.8%	4.8%	$62.07	$56.35
Oct 30, 2026	16	38.5%	8.1%	$63.98	$54.44
Nov 6, 2026	23	36.0%	9.0%	$64.56	$53.86
Nov 13, 2026	30	34.0%	9.7%	$64.98	$53.44
Nov 20, 2026	37	33.6%	10.7%	$65.54	$52.88
Nov 27, 2026	44	32.9%	11.4%	$65.97	$52.45
Dec 18, 2026	65	31.6%	13.3%	$67.11	$51.31
Jan 15, 2027	93	33.1%	16.7%	$69.10	$49.32
Mar 19, 2027	156	34.5%	22.6%	$72.56	$45.86
Jun 17, 2027	246	33.6%	27.6%	$75.54	$42.88
Sep 17, 2027	338	32.5%	31.3%	$77.73	$40.69
Dec 17, 2027	429	31.9%	34.6%	$79.69	$38.73
Jan 21, 2028	464	31.9%	36.0%	$80.51	$37.91
Dec 15, 2028	793	30.4%	44.8%	$85.74	$32.68
Jan 19, 2029	828	30.5%	45.9%	$86.41	$32.01

Frequently asked BMY expected move questions

What is the current BMY expected move?: As of Oct 14, 2026, Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) has an expected move of 9.75% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $53.44 to $64.98 from the current $59.21. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the BMY expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is BMY expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.