Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) operates in the Healthcare sector, specifically the Drug Manufacturers - General industry, with a market capitalization near $115.15B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 34,100 people, carrying a beta of 0.26 to the broader market. Bristol-Myers Squibb Company discovers, develops, licenses, manufactures, and markets biopharmaceutical products worldwide. Led by Christopher S. Boerner, public since 1972-06-01.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $56.98
- Expected Move
- 7.4%
- Implied High
- $61.21
- Implied Low
- $52.75
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) has an expected move of 7.43%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $52.75 to $61.21 from the current $56.98. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
BMY Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Bristol-Myers Squibb Company pricing an expected move of 7.43% from $56.98, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for BMY derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $56.98 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 26.4% | 3.7% | $59.06 | $54.90 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 25.4% | 5.0% | $59.81 | $54.15 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 26.2% | 6.3% | $60.56 | $53.40 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 26.1% | 7.2% | $61.10 | $52.86 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 25.6% | 7.8% | $61.43 | $52.53 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 26.9% | 9.1% | $62.18 | $51.78 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 26.4% | 11.0% | $63.23 | $50.73 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 98 | 27.5% | 14.2% | $65.10 | $48.86 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 27.4% | 16.1% | $66.15 | $47.81 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 30.8% | 23.7% | $70.51 | $43.45 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 31.1% | 25.5% | $71.50 | $42.46 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 308 | 30.9% | 28.4% | $73.15 | $40.81 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 398 | 30.7% | 32.1% | $75.25 | $38.71 |
| Dec 17, 2027 | 581 | 30.2% | 38.1% | $78.69 | $35.27 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 30.2% | 39.2% | $79.33 | $34.63 |
| Dec 15, 2028 | 945 | 30.7% | 49.4% | $85.13 | $28.83 |
Frequently asked BMY expected move questions
- What is the current BMY expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) has an expected move of 7.43% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $52.75 to $61.21 from the current $56.98. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the BMY expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is BMY expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.