What is the current BMY expected move?

As of Jun 30, 2026, Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) has an expected move of 9.04% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $52.55 to $62.99 from the current $57.77. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the BMY expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is BMY expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) operates in the Healthcare sector, specifically the Drug Manufacturers - General industry, with a market capitalization near $117.46B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 34,100 people, carrying a beta of 0.24 to the broader market. Bristol-Myers Squibb Company operates as a global biopharmaceutical entity, actively involved in the research, development, licensing, production, and worldwide commercialization of its medicinal portfolio. Led by Christopher S. Boerner, public since 1972-06-01.

Snapshot as of Jun 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $57.77
Expected Move: 9.0%
Implied High: $62.99
Implied Low: $52.55
Front DTE: 31 days

As of Jun 30, 2026, Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) has an expected move of 9.04%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $52.55 to $62.99 from the current $57.77. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

BMY Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Bristol-Myers Squibb Company pricing an expected move of 9.04% from $57.77, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the BMY implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 9.04%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $52.55 to $62.99. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

BMY expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. BMY term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.008), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.

Sizing BMY structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. BMY put/call volume ratio currently at 0.08 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for BMY derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $57.77 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Jul 2, 2026	2	33.4%	2.5%	$59.20	$56.34
Jul 10, 2026	10	26.4%	4.4%	$60.29	$55.25
Jul 17, 2026	17	26.8%	5.8%	$61.11	$54.43
Jul 24, 2026	24	26.6%	6.8%	$61.71	$53.83
Jul 31, 2026	31	32.1%	9.4%	$63.17	$52.37
Aug 7, 2026	38	31.3%	10.1%	$63.60	$51.94
Aug 21, 2026	52	30.2%	11.4%	$64.36	$51.18
Sep 18, 2026	80	29.1%	13.6%	$65.64	$49.90
Dec 18, 2026	171	31.7%	21.7%	$70.30	$45.24
Jan 15, 2027	199	31.7%	23.4%	$71.29	$44.25
Mar 19, 2027	262	31.0%	26.3%	$72.94	$42.60
Jun 17, 2027	352	31.0%	30.4%	$75.36	$40.18
Dec 17, 2027	535	30.5%	36.9%	$79.10	$36.44
Jan 21, 2028	570	31.5%	39.4%	$80.51	$35.03
Dec 15, 2028	899	30.8%	48.3%	$85.69	$29.85

BMY highest implied-volatility contracts

Type	Strike	Expiration	Volume	OI	IV	Bid	Ask
CALL	$62.50	Aug 21, 2026	22.6K	3.1K	30.4%	$0.92	$0.96
CALL	$62.50	Jul 17, 2026	20.2K	26.6K	28.3%	$0.10	$0.15

Top 2 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.

Frequently asked BMY expected move questions

What is the current BMY expected move?: As of Jun 30, 2026, Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) has an expected move of 9.04% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $52.55 to $62.99 from the current $57.77. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the BMY expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is BMY expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.