Bullish (BLSH) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Bullish (BLSH) operates in the Technology sector, specifically the Software - Application industry, with a market capitalization near $4.61B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 414 people, carrying a beta of 0.33 to the broader market. Bullish, a global digital asset platform that provides market infrastructure and information services in United States. Led by Thomas W. Farley, public since 2025-08-13.
Snapshot as of Oct 14, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $30.31
- Expected Move
- 21.5%
- Implied High
- $36.82
- Implied Low
- $23.80
- Front DTE
- 30 days
As of Oct 14, 2026, Bullish (BLSH) has an expected move of 21.47%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $23.80 to $36.82 from the current $30.31. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
BLSH Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Bullish pricing an expected move of 21.47% from $30.31, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the BLSH implied-range chart
The shaded range below shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 21.47%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $23.80 to $36.82. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
BLSH expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. BLSH term-structure is in contango (slope 0.083), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states.
Sizing BLSH structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. BLSH put/call volume ratio currently at 0.70 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for BLSH derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $30.31 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 2 | 84.8% | 6.3% | $32.21 | $28.41 |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 9 | 74.7% | 11.7% | $33.87 | $26.75 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 16 | 73.6% | 15.4% | $34.98 | $25.64 |
| Nov 6, 2026 | 23 | 73.4% | 18.4% | $35.89 | $24.73 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 30 | 74.9% | 21.5% | $36.82 | $23.80 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 37 | 83.2% | 26.5% | $38.34 | $22.28 |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 44 | 79.2% | 27.5% | $38.64 | $21.98 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 65 | 77.2% | 32.6% | $40.18 | $20.44 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 93 | 74.0% | 37.4% | $41.63 | $18.99 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 156 | 74.2% | 48.5% | $45.01 | $15.61 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 464 | 73.3% | 82.6% | $55.36 | $5.26 |
| Jan 19, 2029 | 828 | 73.3% | 110.4% | $63.77 | $-3.15 |
Frequently asked BLSH expected move questions
- What is the current BLSH expected move?
- As of Oct 14, 2026, Bullish (BLSH) has an expected move of 21.47% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $23.80 to $36.82 from the current $30.31. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the BLSH expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is BLSH expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.