Bullish (BLSH) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Bullish (BLSH) operates in the Technology sector, specifically the Software - Application industry, with a market capitalization near $3.81B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 414 people, carrying a beta of 0.35 to the broader market. Bullish, a global digital asset platform that provides market infrastructure and information services in United States. Led by Thomas W. Farley, public since 2025-08-13.
Snapshot as of Jul 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $24.88
- Expected Move
- 24.1%
- Implied High
- $30.88
- Implied Low
- $18.88
- Front DTE
- 30 days
As of Jul 15, 2026, Bullish (BLSH) has an expected move of 24.11%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $18.88 to $30.88 from the current $24.88. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
BLSH Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Bullish pricing an expected move of 24.11% from $24.88, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the BLSH implied-range chart
The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 24.11%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $18.88 to $30.88. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
BLSH expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. BLSH term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.017), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.
Sizing BLSH structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. BLSH put/call volume ratio currently at 0.11 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for BLSH derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $24.88 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 17, 2026 | 2 | 103.8% | 7.7% | $26.79 | $22.97 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 9 | 74.5% | 11.7% | $27.79 | $21.97 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 16 | 75.8% | 15.9% | $28.83 | $20.93 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | 23 | 76.1% | 19.1% | $29.63 | $20.13 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | 30 | 84.1% | 24.1% | $30.88 | $18.88 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 37 | 82.4% | 26.2% | $31.41 | $18.35 |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 44 | 83.7% | 29.1% | $32.11 | $17.65 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 65 | 81.4% | 34.4% | $33.43 | $16.33 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 156 | 80.6% | 52.7% | $37.99 | $11.77 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 184 | 78.8% | 55.9% | $38.80 | $10.96 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 555 | 79.8% | 98.4% | $49.36 | $0.40 |
Frequently asked BLSH expected move questions
- What is the current BLSH expected move?
- As of Jul 15, 2026, Bullish (BLSH) has an expected move of 24.11% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $18.88 to $30.88 from the current $24.88. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the BLSH expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is BLSH expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.