Bullish (BLSH) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Bullish (BLSH) operates in the Technology sector, specifically the Software - Infrastructure industry, with a market capitalization near $5.29B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 400 people, carrying a beta of -0.07 to the broader market. Bullish provides market infrastructure and information services in United States. Led by Thomas W. Farley, public since 2025-08-13.
Snapshot as of May 29, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $34.97
- Expected Move
- 20.2%
- Implied High
- $42.05
- Implied Low
- $27.89
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 29, 2026, Bullish (BLSH) has an expected move of 20.23%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $27.89 to $42.05 from the current $34.97. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
BLSH Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Bullish pricing an expected move of 20.23% from $34.97, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the BLSH implied-range chart
The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 20.23%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $27.89 to $42.05. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
BLSH expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. BLSH term-structure is in contango (slope 0.002), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. With IV rank at 12.5%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical BLSH range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.
Sizing BLSH structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. BLSH put/call volume ratio currently at 1.31 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for BLSH derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $34.97 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | 7 | 67.7% | 9.4% | $38.25 | $31.69 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 14 | 70.1% | 13.7% | $39.77 | $30.17 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 20 | 69.7% | 16.3% | $40.68 | $29.26 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 28 | 70.5% | 19.5% | $41.80 | $28.14 |
| Jul 2, 2026 | 34 | 70.7% | 21.6% | $42.52 | $27.42 |
| Jul 10, 2026 | 42 | 73.0% | 24.8% | $43.63 | $26.31 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 49 | 69.9% | 25.6% | $43.93 | $26.01 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 112 | 74.5% | 41.3% | $49.40 | $20.54 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 203 | 76.6% | 57.1% | $54.95 | $14.99 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 231 | 75.5% | 60.1% | $55.97 | $13.97 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 602 | 76.9% | 98.8% | $69.51 | $0.43 |
Frequently asked BLSH expected move questions
- What is the current BLSH expected move?
- As of May 29, 2026, Bullish (BLSH) has an expected move of 20.23% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $27.89 to $42.05 from the current $34.97. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the BLSH expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is BLSH expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.