Braemar Hotels & Resorts Inc. (BHR) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Braemar Hotels & Resorts Inc. (BHR) operates in the Real Estate sector, specifically the REIT - Hotel & Motel industry, with a market capitalization near $173.8M, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 116 people, carrying a beta of 0.79 to the broader market. Braemar Hotels & Resorts is a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on investing in luxury hotels and resorts. Led by Richard J. Stockton, public since 2013-11-06.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $2.50
- Expected Move
- 38.8%
- Implied High
- $3.47
- Implied Low
- $1.53
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, Braemar Hotels & Resorts Inc. (BHR) has an expected move of 38.85%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $1.53 to $3.47 from the current $2.50. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
BHR Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Braemar Hotels & Resorts Inc. pricing an expected move of 38.85% from $2.50, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for BHR derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $2.50 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 135.5% | 41.4% | $3.53 | $1.47 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 100.6% | 41.8% | $3.54 | $1.46 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 154 | 50.0% | 32.5% | $3.31 | $1.69 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 96.2% | 78.8% | $4.47 | $0.53 |
Frequently asked BHR expected move questions
- What is the current BHR expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Braemar Hotels & Resorts Inc. (BHR) has an expected move of 38.85% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $1.53 to $3.47 from the current $2.50. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the BHR expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is BHR expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.