BBAI Butterfly Strategy
BBAI (BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.), in the Technology sector, (Information Technology Services industry), listed on NYSE.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. provides artificial intelligence and machine learning for decision support. The company operates through two segments, Cyber & Engineering and Analytics. The Cyber & Engineering segment offers high-end technology and management consulting services. It focuses in the areas of cloud engineering and enterprise IT, cybersecurity, computer network operations and wireless, systems engineering, and strategy and program planning. The Analytics segment provides high-end technology and consulting services. This segment focuses on the areas of big data computing and analytical solutions, including predictive and prescriptive analytics solutions.
BBAI (BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.) trades in the Technology sector, specifically Information Technology Services, with a market capitalization of approximately $1.51B, a beta of 3.05 versus the broader market, a 52-week range of 3.01-9.39, average daily share volume of 48.3M, a public-listing history dating back to 2021, approximately 630 full-time employees. These structural characteristics shape how BBAI stock options price implied volatility around earnings windows, capital events, and macro-driven sector rotations.
A beta of 3.05 indicates BBAI has historically moved more than the broader market, amplifying both the directional payoff and the realized volatility relative to an index-equivalent position.
What is a butterfly on BBAI?
A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration.
Current BBAI snapshot
As of May 15, 2026, spot at $4.13, ATM IV 83.35%, IV rank 8.60%, expected move 23.90%. The butterfly on BBAI below is built from the same end-of-day chain, with strikes snapped to listed contracts and premiums pulled from the bid/ask midpoint at a 28-day expiry.
Why this butterfly structure on BBAI specifically: BBAI IV at 83.35% is on the cheap side of its 1-year range, which favors premium-buying structures like a BBAI butterfly, with a market-implied 1-standard-deviation move of approximately 23.90% (roughly $0.99 on the underlying). The 28-day window matched to the front-month expiry keeps theta exposure bounded while still capturing the post-snapshot move; longer-dated BBAI expiries trade a higher absolute premium for lower per-day decay. Position sizing on BBAI should anchor to the underlying notional of $4.13 per share and to the trader's directional view on BBAI stock.
BBAI butterfly setup
The BBAI butterfly below is built from the end-of-day chain, with each option leg priced at the bid/ask midpoint of its listed strike. With BBAI near $4.13, the first option leg uses a $3.92 strike; additional legs (when the strategy has them) anchor to spot-relative offsets. Premiums come from the bid/ask midpoint on the listed BBAI chain at a 28-day expiry; the cross-strike IV skew is reflected directly in the per-leg values rather than approximated. Quantity sizing assumes one contract per option leg (or 100 BBAI shares for the stock leg in covered calls and collars).
| Action | Type | Strike / Basis | Premium (est) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy 1 | Call | $3.92 | N/A |
| Sell 2 | Call | $4.13 | N/A |
| Buy 1 | Call | $4.34 | N/A |
BBAI butterfly risk and reward
- Net Premium / Debit
- N/A
- Max Profit (per contract)
- Unbounded
- Max Loss (per contract)
- Unbounded
- Breakeven(s)
- None on modeled curve
- Risk / Reward Ratio
- N/A
Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit.
BBAI butterfly payoff curve
Modeled P&L at expiration across a range of underlying prices for the butterfly on BBAI. Each row is one sampled price point from the computed payoff curve; the full curve uses 200 price points internally before being summarized into 10 rows here.
When traders use butterfly on BBAI
Butterflies on BBAI are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect BBAI to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.
BBAI thesis for this butterfly
The market-implied 1-standard-deviation range for BBAI extends from approximately $3.14 on the downside to $5.12 on the upside. A BBAI long call butterfly is a pinning play: it pays maximum at the middle strike if BBAI settles there at expiration, with the wing legs capping both the cost and the maximum loss to the net debit. Current BBAI IV rank near 8.60% sits in the lower third of its 1-year distribution, where IV often re-expands toward the mean; this favors premium-buying structures and disadvantages premium-selling structures on BBAI at 83.35%. As a Technology name, BBAI options can move on sector-level news flow (peer earnings, regulatory updates, industry-specific macro data) in addition to BBAI-specific events.
BBAI butterfly positions are structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward); the modeled P&L assumes European-style exercise at expiration and ignores early assignment, transaction costs, dividends paid before expiry on the stock leg (when present), and the bid-ask spread on the listed chain. BBAI positions also carry Technology sector concentration risk; news flow inside the sector (peer earnings, regulatory shifts, supply-chain headlines) can move BBAI alongside the broader basket even when BBAI-specific fundamentals are unchanged. Always rebuild the position from current BBAI chain quotes before placing a trade.
Frequently asked questions
- What is a butterfly on BBAI?
- A butterfly on BBAI is the butterfly strategy applied to BBAI (stock). The strategy is structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward): A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration. With BBAI stock trading near $4.13, the strikes shown on this page are snapped to the nearest listed BBAI chain strike and the premiums come straight from the end-of-day bid/ask midpoint.
- How are BBAI butterfly max profit and max loss calculated?
- Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit. For the BBAI butterfly priced from the end-of-day chain at a 30-day expiry (ATM IV 83.35%), the computed maximum profit is unbounded per contract and the computed maximum loss is unbounded per contract. Live intraday quotes will differ as the chain moves through the trading session.
- What is the breakeven for a BBAI butterfly?
- The breakeven for the BBAI butterfly priced on this page is no defined breakeven on the modeled curve at expiration, derived from end-of-day chain premiums. Breakeven is the underlying price at which the strategy's P&L crosses zero ignoring transaction costs and assignment risk. The current BBAI market-implied 1-standard-deviation expected move is approximately 23.90%; if the move sits well outside the breakeven distance, the structure's risk-reward becomes correspondingly tighter.
- When should you consider a butterfly on BBAI?
- Butterflies on BBAI are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect BBAI to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.
- How does current BBAI implied volatility affect this butterfly?
- BBAI ATM IV is at 83.35% with IV rank near 8.60%, which is on the low end of its 1-year range. Premium-buying structures (long call, long put, debit spreads) are relatively cheap in this regime; premium-selling structures collect less credit per unit risk.