Is AXTI options pricing rich or cheap right now?

As of Jul 15, 2026, AXT, Inc. (AXTI) ATM IV is 173.9% against 20-day realized volatility of 161.4%. IV rank is 73.8%. AXTI options are pricing in more volatility than the stock has recently realized: a positive variance risk premium worth 12.5 vol points.

What is the AXTI variance risk premium?

The variance risk premium is the persistent gap between implied and subsequently realized volatility. In equity markets it averages positive because option sellers demand compensation for bearing variance shocks. AXTI is currently priced consistently with this premium, which is one input to whether short-vol or long-vol structures carry their typical edge.

What does AXTI IV rank mean for strategy selection?

IV rank normalizes the current ATM IV to its 1-year range: 0% is the low, 100% is the high. AXTI's current rank of 73.8% signals where current pricing sits in its own 1-year history. High-rank regimes typically favor premium-selling structures (credit spreads, condors, covered calls); low-rank regimes typically favor premium-buying or long-volatility structures.

AXT, Inc. (AXTI) IV/HV History

Comparing implied volatility to historical (realized) volatility reveals whether options are priced rich or cheap relative to actual price movement. Persistent gaps can signal trading opportunities.

AXT, Inc. (AXTI) operates in the Technology sector, specifically the Semiconductors industry, with a market capitalization near $2.48B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 1,541 people, carrying a beta of 1.87 to the broader market. AXT, Inc. Led by Morris S. Young, public since 1998-05-21.

Snapshot as of Jul 15, 2026.

Spot Price: $53.63
ATM IV: 173.9%
HV 20-Day: 161.4%
HV 60-Day: 158.0%
IV Rank: 73.8%
IV Percentile: 88.5%

As of Jul 15, 2026, AXT, Inc. (AXTI) ATM implied volatility is 173.9%. 20-day realized volatility is 161.4%, producing an IV-HV spread of +12.5 vol points. Options are pricing in more volatility than the stock has recently delivered, the volatility risk premium. IV rank is 73.8%.

How AXTI iv/hv history Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on AXT, Inc. options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The iv/hv history view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 173.9% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the iv/hv history data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the AXTI IV vs HV chart

The dual-line chart above tracks ATM implied volatility (forward-looking, what the chain is pricing) against 20-day realized historical volatility (backward-looking, what actually happened). ATM IV currently prints at 173.9%, 73.8% IV rank, against 161.4% realized over the trailing 20 trading days. Implied is pricing above realized by 12.5 vol points, the typical variance-risk-premium positive state in which premium sellers earn the gap. Persistent IV-above-HV is the variance-risk-premium-positive state typical of equity markets; persistent IV-below-HV is rare and usually marks underpriced vol that often expands.

AXTI IV/HV regimes and trade selection

AXTI sits in the top quartile of its 1-year IV range. High-IV-rank regimes statistically favor premium-selling - the elevated implied is more likely to mean-revert than to expand further. Iron condors, covered calls, and cash-secured puts collect more premium per unit of notional risk; size wings to the implied move and exit on first sign of HV catching up.

Using AXTI vol history alongside the term structure

The IV/HV gap on this page captures the level of premium; the term-structure slope on the volatility page captures its shape across expirations. Backwardation (negative slope -0.059) indicates acute near-term event risk - near-dated tenors price disproportionate vol. Pair the rank read with the slope read with the event calendar to choose the right tenor for the structure.

AXTI IV/HV signal in volatility-cycle context

Equity-vol cycles tend to compress and expand on multi-month timeframes: a typical sequence runs low-IV-rank consolidation (months of flat tape, decaying premium) into a vol-expansion catalyst (earnings miss, macro shock, regime change) into elevated-IV-rank stress (premiums fat, dispersion high) back to mean-reverting compression. AXTI's current 73.8% IV rank places the ticker in the expansion or stress phase of that cycle. Premium-selling carries the typical structural tailwind here, but the mean-reverting compression that completes the cycle has historically arrived sharply rather than gradually. The ratio of HV-20 (161.4%) to HV-60 (158.0%) gives a second cycle indicator: when 20-day exceeds 60-day, recent realization is running hotter than the trailing-quarter average - typically a sign that recent days have already started expanding vol regardless of where IV rank prints. Use the time series above to spot inflection points: meaningful IV/HV gap closures and openings tend to precede regime shifts by a few sessions.

Learn how implied vs realized volatility is reported and how to read the data →

Daily ATM implied volatility and 20-day realized (historical) volatility for AXTI over the last ~31 trading days. The IV-HV gap measures the variance risk premium - when IV trades persistently above realized HV, premium-sellers earn the spread; when IV dips below HV, vol is structurally underpriced.

Daily values from end-of-day option_ticker_snapshots. Series sparse on illiquid tickers reflects gaps in the upstream end-of-day options data feed.

Most recent 15 trading days (descending). Older history appears in the chart above.

Date	ATM IV	HV 20d	HV 60d	IV Rank
Jul 15, 2026	173.9%	161.4%	158.0%	73.8%
Jul 14, 2026	177.4%	168.6%	157.3%	76.2%
Jul 13, 2026	164.3%	160.7%	164.0%	67.3%
Jul 10, 2026	163.4%	154.4%	161.8%	66.7%
Jul 9, 2026	168.1%	160.1%	160.8%	69.9%
Jul 8, 2026	166.7%	166.2%	160.5%	69.0%
Jul 7, 2026	163.7%	165.6%	160.6%	66.9%
Jul 6, 2026	164.6%	173.7%	163.5%	67.5%
Jul 2, 2026	157.0%	164.7%	165.4%	62.5%
Jul 1, 2026	153.0%	159.6%	163.1%	59.7%
Jun 30, 2026	153.6%	156.4%	169.0%	61.8%
Jun 29, 2026	154.1%	158.8%	170.2%	62.1%
Jun 26, 2026	145.7%	161.6%	173.9%	56.8%
Jun 25, 2026	143.9%	161.5%	174.5%	55.6%
Jun 24, 2026	141.3%	162.3%	177.0%	53.9%

Frequently asked AXTI iv/hv history questions

Is AXTI options pricing rich or cheap right now?: As of Jul 15, 2026, AXT, Inc. (AXTI) ATM IV is 173.9% against 20-day realized volatility of 161.4%. IV rank is 73.8%. AXTI options are pricing in more volatility than the stock has recently realized: a positive variance risk premium worth 12.5 vol points.
What is the AXTI variance risk premium?: The variance risk premium is the persistent gap between implied and subsequently realized volatility. In equity markets it averages positive because option sellers demand compensation for bearing variance shocks. AXTI is currently priced consistently with this premium, which is one input to whether short-vol or long-vol structures carry their typical edge.
What does AXTI IV rank mean for strategy selection?: IV rank normalizes the current ATM IV to its 1-year range: 0% is the low, 100% is the high. AXTI's current rank of 73.8% signals where current pricing sits in its own 1-year history. High-rank regimes typically favor premium-selling structures (credit spreads, condors, covered calls); low-rank regimes typically favor premium-buying or long-volatility structures.