ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) operates in the Technology sector, specifically the Semiconductors industry, with a market capitalization near $668.39B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 43,129 people, carrying a beta of 1.40 to the broader market. ASML Holding N. Led by Christophe D. Fouquet, public since 1995-03-15.

Snapshot as of Jun 11, 2026.

Spot Price

$1888.05

Expected Move

17.9%

Implied High

$2226.49

Implied Low

$1549.61

Front DTE

29 days

As of Jun 11, 2026, ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) has an expected move of 17.93%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $1549.61 to $2226.49 from the current $1888.05. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

ASML Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With ASML Holding N.V. pricing an expected move of 17.93% from $1888.05, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the ASML implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 17.93%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $1549.61 to $2226.49. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

ASML expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. ASML term-structure is in contango (slope 0.030), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. Combined with the 100.0% IV rank, the implied move is meaningfully wider than the typical ASML trailing range, so even premium-selling structures need wide wings to absorb the elevated regime.

Sizing ASML structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. ASML put/call volume ratio currently at 0.45 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Per-expiration expected move for ASML derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $1888.05 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Frequently asked ASML expected move questions

What is the current ASML expected move?

As of Jun 11, 2026, ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) has an expected move of 17.93% over the next 29 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $1549.61 to $2226.49 from the current $1888.05. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the ASML expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is ASML expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.