Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (ASM) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (ASM) operates in the Basic Materials sector, specifically the Other Precious Metals industry, with a market capitalization near $1.32B, listed on AMEX, employing roughly 350 people, carrying a beta of 2.86 to the broader market. Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. Led by David Wolfin, public since 2005-11-21.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $7.11
- Expected Move
- 23.7%
- Implied High
- $8.80
- Implied Low
- $5.42
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (ASM) has an expected move of 23.71%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $5.42 to $8.80 from the current $7.11. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
ASM Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. pricing an expected move of 23.71% from $7.11, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for ASM derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $7.11 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 82.7% | 25.2% | $8.90 | $5.32 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 82.5% | 34.3% | $9.55 | $4.67 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 154 | 86.2% | 56.0% | $11.09 | $3.13 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 86.5% | 70.9% | $12.15 | $2.07 |
Frequently asked ASM expected move questions
- What is the current ASM expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (ASM) has an expected move of 23.71% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $5.42 to $8.80 from the current $7.11. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the ASM expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is ASM expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.