Aramark (ARMK) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Aramark (ARMK) operates in the Industrials sector, specifically the Specialty Business Services industry, with a market capitalization near $14.40B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 278,390 people, carrying a beta of 1.19 to the broader market. Based in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Aramark, established in 1959, provides a comprehensive array of services encompassing food management, facility solutions, and uniform provision. Led by John J. Zillmer, public since 2013-12-12.
Snapshot as of Oct 14, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $54.59
- Expected Move
- 8.4%
- Implied High
- $59.16
- Implied Low
- $50.02
- Front DTE
- 37 days
As of Oct 14, 2026, Aramark (ARMK) has an expected move of 8.37%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $50.02 to $59.16 from the current $54.59. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
ARMK Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Aramark pricing an expected move of 8.37% from $54.59, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the ARMK implied-range chart
The shaded range below shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 8.37%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $50.02 to $59.16. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
ARMK expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. ARMK term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.018), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window. With IV rank at 4.9%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical ARMK range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.
Sizing ARMK structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. ARMK put/call volume ratio currently at 0.23 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for ARMK derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $54.59 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 2 | 23.1% | 1.7% | $55.52 | $53.66 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 37 | 29.2% | 9.3% | $59.67 | $49.51 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 65 | 27.4% | 11.6% | $60.90 | $48.28 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 93 | 26.1% | 13.2% | $61.78 | $47.40 |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 184 | 26.5% | 18.8% | $64.86 | $44.32 |
| May 21, 2027 | 219 | 27.3% | 21.1% | $66.13 | $43.05 |
| Aug 20, 2027 | 310 | 29.1% | 26.8% | $69.23 | $39.95 |
| Nov 19, 2027 | 401 | 28.1% | 29.5% | $70.67 | $38.51 |
Frequently asked ARMK expected move questions
- What is the current ARMK expected move?
- As of Oct 14, 2026, Aramark (ARMK) has an expected move of 8.37% over the next 37 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $50.02 to $59.16 from the current $54.59. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the ARMK expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is ARMK expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.