Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF) operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically the Apparel - Retail industry, with a market capitalization near $3.23B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 6,600 people, carrying a beta of 0.96 to the broader market. Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Led by Fran Horowitz, public since 1996-09-26.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $70.45
- Expected Move
- 22.7%
- Implied High
- $86.41
- Implied Low
- $54.49
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF) has an expected move of 22.65%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $54.49 to $86.41 from the current $70.45. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
ANF Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Abercrombie & Fitch Co. pricing an expected move of 22.65% from $70.45, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for ANF derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $70.45 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 58.7% | 8.1% | $76.18 | $64.72 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 97.3% | 19.1% | $83.87 | $57.03 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 87.4% | 21.0% | $85.22 | $55.68 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 80.5% | 22.3% | $86.16 | $54.74 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 76.5% | 23.3% | $86.90 | $54.00 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 73.6% | 25.0% | $88.04 | $52.86 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 67.1% | 27.9% | $90.09 | $50.81 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 98 | 62.2% | 32.2% | $93.16 | $47.74 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 65.9% | 38.7% | $97.73 | $43.17 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 189 | 63.3% | 45.6% | $102.54 | $38.36 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 63.8% | 49.2% | $105.11 | $35.79 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 63.5% | 52.0% | $107.10 | $33.80 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 60.5% | 78.6% | $125.82 | $15.08 |
Frequently asked ANF expected move questions
- What is the current ANF expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF) has an expected move of 22.65% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $54.49 to $86.41 from the current $70.45. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the ANF expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is ANF expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.