ALMS Iron Condor Strategy
ALMS (Alumis Inc. Common Stock), in the Healthcare sector, (Biotechnology industry), listed on NASDAQ.
Alumis Inc., a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of medicines for autoimmune disorders. It develops ESK-001, an allosteric tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2) inhibitor for the treatment of plaque psoriasis, systemic lupus erythematosus, and non-infectious uveitis; and A-005, a central nervous system-penetrant allosteric TYK2 inhibitor for neuroinflammatory and neurodegenerative diseases. The company was formerly known as Esker Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Alumis Inc. in January 2022. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.
ALMS (Alumis Inc. Common Stock) trades in the Healthcare sector, specifically Biotechnology, with a market capitalization of approximately $3.06B, a beta of -0.29 versus the broader market, a 52-week range of 2.76-30.6, average daily share volume of 1.4M, a public-listing history dating back to 2021, approximately 168 full-time employees. These structural characteristics shape how ALMS stock options price implied volatility around earnings windows, capital events, and macro-driven sector rotations.
A beta of -0.29 indicates ALMS has historically moved less than the broader market, dampening realized volatility and producing tighter expected-move bands per unit of dollar exposure.
What is a iron condor on ALMS?
An iron condor sells a call spread and a put spread at strikes outside spot, collecting net premium that is kept if the underlying stays inside the inner short strikes.
Current ALMS snapshot
As of May 15, 2026, spot at $23.05, ATM IV 81.70%, IV rank 9.07%, expected move 23.42%. The iron condor on ALMS below is built from the same end-of-day chain, with strikes snapped to listed contracts and premiums pulled from the bid/ask midpoint at a 34-day expiry.
Why this iron condor structure on ALMS specifically: ALMS IV at 81.70% is on the cheap side of its 1-year range, which means a premium-selling ALMS iron condor collects less credit per unit of strike-width risk, with a market-implied 1-standard-deviation move of approximately 23.42% (roughly $5.40 on the underlying). The 34-day window matched to the front-month expiry keeps theta exposure bounded while still capturing the post-snapshot move; longer-dated ALMS expiries trade a higher absolute premium for lower per-day decay. Position sizing on ALMS should anchor to the underlying notional of $23.05 per share and to the trader's directional view on ALMS stock.
ALMS iron condor setup
The ALMS iron condor below is built from the end-of-day chain, with each option leg priced at the bid/ask midpoint of its listed strike. With ALMS near $23.05, the first option leg uses a $24.00 strike; additional legs (when the strategy has them) anchor to spot-relative offsets. Premiums come from the bid/ask midpoint on the listed ALMS chain at a 34-day expiry; the cross-strike IV skew is reflected directly in the per-leg values rather than approximated. Quantity sizing assumes one contract per option leg (or 100 ALMS shares for the stock leg in covered calls and collars).
| Action | Type | Strike / Basis | Premium (est) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sell 1 | Call | $24.00 | $2.50 |
| Buy 1 | Call | $25.00 | $1.50 |
| Sell 1 | Put | $22.00 | $1.68 |
| Buy 1 | Put | $21.00 | $1.05 |
ALMS iron condor risk and reward
- Net Premium / Debit
- +$162.50
- Max Profit (per contract)
- $162.50
- Max Loss (per contract)
- $62.50
- Breakeven(s)
- None on modeled curve
- Risk / Reward Ratio
- 2.600
Max profit equals the net credit times 100 inside the inner strikes; max loss equals wing width minus credit times 100. Two breakevens at inner strikes plus and minus the credit.
ALMS iron condor payoff curve
Modeled P&L at expiration across a range of underlying prices for the iron condor on ALMS. Each row is one sampled price point from the computed payoff curve; the full curve uses 200 price points internally before being summarized into 10 rows here.
| Underlying Price | % From Spot | P&L at Expiration |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | -100.0% | +$62.50 |
| $5.11 | -77.9% | +$62.50 |
| $10.20 | -55.7% | +$62.50 |
| $15.30 | -33.6% | +$62.50 |
| $20.39 | -11.5% | +$62.50 |
| $25.49 | +10.6% | +$62.50 |
| $30.58 | +32.7% | +$62.50 |
| $35.68 | +54.8% | +$62.50 |
| $40.77 | +76.9% | +$62.50 |
| $45.87 | +99.0% | +$62.50 |
When traders use iron condor on ALMS
Iron condors on ALMS are a delta-neutral premium-collection structure that profits if ALMS stock stays inside the inner short strikes; short strikes typically sit near 1 standard deviation from spot.
ALMS thesis for this iron condor
The market-implied 1-standard-deviation range for ALMS extends from approximately $17.65 on the downside to $28.45 on the upside. A ALMS iron condor is a delta-neutral premium-collection structure that pays off when ALMS stays inside the inner short strikes through expiration; the wing width should reflect the trader's tolerance for the maximum loss scenario where the underlying breaches an outer strike. Current ALMS IV rank near 9.07% sits in the lower third of its 1-year distribution, where IV often re-expands toward the mean; this favors premium-buying structures and disadvantages premium-selling structures on ALMS at 81.70%. As a Healthcare name, ALMS options can move on sector-level news flow (peer earnings, regulatory updates, industry-specific macro data) in addition to ALMS-specific events.
ALMS iron condor positions are structurally neutral / range-bound; the modeled P&L assumes European-style exercise at expiration and ignores early assignment, transaction costs, dividends paid before expiry on the stock leg (when present), and the bid-ask spread on the listed chain. ALMS positions also carry Healthcare sector concentration risk; news flow inside the sector (peer earnings, regulatory shifts, supply-chain headlines) can move ALMS alongside the broader basket even when ALMS-specific fundamentals are unchanged. Short-premium structures like a iron condor on ALMS carry tail risk when realized volatility exceeds the implied move; review historical ALMS earnings reactions and macro stress periods before sizing. Always rebuild the position from current ALMS chain quotes before placing a trade.
Frequently asked questions
- What is a iron condor on ALMS?
- A iron condor on ALMS is the iron condor strategy applied to ALMS (stock). The strategy is structurally neutral / range-bound: An iron condor sells a call spread and a put spread at strikes outside spot, collecting net premium that is kept if the underlying stays inside the inner short strikes. With ALMS stock trading near $23.05, the strikes shown on this page are snapped to the nearest listed ALMS chain strike and the premiums come straight from the end-of-day bid/ask midpoint.
- How are ALMS iron condor max profit and max loss calculated?
- Max profit equals the net credit times 100 inside the inner strikes; max loss equals wing width minus credit times 100. Two breakevens at inner strikes plus and minus the credit. For the ALMS iron condor priced from the end-of-day chain at a 30-day expiry (ATM IV 81.70%), the computed maximum profit is $162.50 per contract and the computed maximum loss is $62.50 per contract. Live intraday quotes will differ as the chain moves through the trading session.
- What is the breakeven for a ALMS iron condor?
- The breakeven for the ALMS iron condor priced on this page is no defined breakeven on the modeled curve at expiration, derived from end-of-day chain premiums. Breakeven is the underlying price at which the strategy's P&L crosses zero ignoring transaction costs and assignment risk. The current ALMS market-implied 1-standard-deviation expected move is approximately 23.42%; if the move sits well outside the breakeven distance, the structure's risk-reward becomes correspondingly tighter.
- When should you consider a iron condor on ALMS?
- Iron condors on ALMS are a delta-neutral premium-collection structure that profits if ALMS stock stays inside the inner short strikes; short strikes typically sit near 1 standard deviation from spot.
- How does current ALMS implied volatility affect this iron condor?
- ALMS ATM IV is at 81.70% with IV rank near 9.07%, which is on the low end of its 1-year range. Premium-buying structures (long call, long put, debit spreads) are relatively cheap in this regime; premium-selling structures collect less credit per unit risk.