ALMS Butterfly Strategy
ALMS (Alumis Inc. Common Stock), in the Healthcare sector, (Biotechnology industry), listed on NASDAQ.
Alumis Inc., a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of medicines for autoimmune disorders. It develops ESK-001, an allosteric tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2) inhibitor for the treatment of plaque psoriasis, systemic lupus erythematosus, and non-infectious uveitis; and A-005, a central nervous system-penetrant allosteric TYK2 inhibitor for neuroinflammatory and neurodegenerative diseases. The company was formerly known as Esker Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Alumis Inc. in January 2022. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.
ALMS (Alumis Inc. Common Stock) trades in the Healthcare sector, specifically Biotechnology, with a market capitalization of approximately $3.06B, a beta of -0.29 versus the broader market, a 52-week range of 2.76-30.6, average daily share volume of 1.4M, a public-listing history dating back to 2021, approximately 168 full-time employees. These structural characteristics shape how ALMS stock options price implied volatility around earnings windows, capital events, and macro-driven sector rotations.
A beta of -0.29 indicates ALMS has historically moved less than the broader market, dampening realized volatility and producing tighter expected-move bands per unit of dollar exposure.
What is a butterfly on ALMS?
A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration.
Current ALMS snapshot
As of May 15, 2026, spot at $23.05, ATM IV 81.70%, IV rank 9.07%, expected move 23.42%. The butterfly on ALMS below is built from the same end-of-day chain, with strikes snapped to listed contracts and premiums pulled from the bid/ask midpoint at a 34-day expiry.
Why this butterfly structure on ALMS specifically: ALMS IV at 81.70% is on the cheap side of its 1-year range, which favors premium-buying structures like a ALMS butterfly, with a market-implied 1-standard-deviation move of approximately 23.42% (roughly $5.40 on the underlying). The 34-day window matched to the front-month expiry keeps theta exposure bounded while still capturing the post-snapshot move; longer-dated ALMS expiries trade a higher absolute premium for lower per-day decay. Position sizing on ALMS should anchor to the underlying notional of $23.05 per share and to the trader's directional view on ALMS stock.
ALMS butterfly setup
The ALMS butterfly below is built from the end-of-day chain, with each option leg priced at the bid/ask midpoint of its listed strike. With ALMS near $23.05, the first option leg uses a $22.00 strike; additional legs (when the strategy has them) anchor to spot-relative offsets. Premiums come from the bid/ask midpoint on the listed ALMS chain at a 34-day expiry; the cross-strike IV skew is reflected directly in the per-leg values rather than approximated. Quantity sizing assumes one contract per option leg (or 100 ALMS shares for the stock leg in covered calls and collars).
| Action | Type | Strike / Basis | Premium (est) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy 1 | Call | $22.00 | $2.48 |
| Sell 2 | Call | $23.00 | $2.75 |
| Buy 1 | Call | $24.00 | $2.50 |
ALMS butterfly risk and reward
- Net Premium / Debit
- +$52.50
- Max Profit (per contract)
- $146.42
- Max Loss (per contract)
- $52.50
- Breakeven(s)
- None on modeled curve
- Risk / Reward Ratio
- 2.789
Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit.
ALMS butterfly payoff curve
Modeled P&L at expiration across a range of underlying prices for the butterfly on ALMS. Each row is one sampled price point from the computed payoff curve; the full curve uses 200 price points internally before being summarized into 10 rows here.
| Underlying Price | % From Spot | P&L at Expiration |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | -100.0% | +$52.50 |
| $5.11 | -77.9% | +$52.50 |
| $10.20 | -55.7% | +$52.50 |
| $15.30 | -33.6% | +$52.50 |
| $20.39 | -11.5% | +$52.50 |
| $25.49 | +10.6% | +$52.50 |
| $30.58 | +32.7% | +$52.50 |
| $35.68 | +54.8% | +$52.50 |
| $40.77 | +76.9% | +$52.50 |
| $45.87 | +99.0% | +$52.50 |
When traders use butterfly on ALMS
Butterflies on ALMS are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect ALMS to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.
ALMS thesis for this butterfly
The market-implied 1-standard-deviation range for ALMS extends from approximately $17.65 on the downside to $28.45 on the upside. A ALMS long call butterfly is a pinning play: it pays maximum at the middle strike if ALMS settles there at expiration, with the wing legs capping both the cost and the maximum loss to the net debit. Current ALMS IV rank near 9.07% sits in the lower third of its 1-year distribution, where IV often re-expands toward the mean; this favors premium-buying structures and disadvantages premium-selling structures on ALMS at 81.70%. As a Healthcare name, ALMS options can move on sector-level news flow (peer earnings, regulatory updates, industry-specific macro data) in addition to ALMS-specific events.
ALMS butterfly positions are structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward); the modeled P&L assumes European-style exercise at expiration and ignores early assignment, transaction costs, dividends paid before expiry on the stock leg (when present), and the bid-ask spread on the listed chain. ALMS positions also carry Healthcare sector concentration risk; news flow inside the sector (peer earnings, regulatory shifts, supply-chain headlines) can move ALMS alongside the broader basket even when ALMS-specific fundamentals are unchanged. Always rebuild the position from current ALMS chain quotes before placing a trade.
Frequently asked questions
- What is a butterfly on ALMS?
- A butterfly on ALMS is the butterfly strategy applied to ALMS (stock). The strategy is structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward): A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration. With ALMS stock trading near $23.05, the strikes shown on this page are snapped to the nearest listed ALMS chain strike and the premiums come straight from the end-of-day bid/ask midpoint.
- How are ALMS butterfly max profit and max loss calculated?
- Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit. For the ALMS butterfly priced from the end-of-day chain at a 30-day expiry (ATM IV 81.70%), the computed maximum profit is $146.42 per contract and the computed maximum loss is $52.50 per contract. Live intraday quotes will differ as the chain moves through the trading session.
- What is the breakeven for a ALMS butterfly?
- The breakeven for the ALMS butterfly priced on this page is no defined breakeven on the modeled curve at expiration, derived from end-of-day chain premiums. Breakeven is the underlying price at which the strategy's P&L crosses zero ignoring transaction costs and assignment risk. The current ALMS market-implied 1-standard-deviation expected move is approximately 23.42%; if the move sits well outside the breakeven distance, the structure's risk-reward becomes correspondingly tighter.
- When should you consider a butterfly on ALMS?
- Butterflies on ALMS are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect ALMS to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.
- How does current ALMS implied volatility affect this butterfly?
- ALMS ATM IV is at 81.70% with IV rank near 9.07%, which is on the low end of its 1-year range. Premium-buying structures (long call, long put, debit spreads) are relatively cheap in this regime; premium-selling structures collect less credit per unit risk.