Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Insurance - Brokers industry, with a market capitalization near $49.33B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 72,000 people, carrying a beta of 0.55 to the broader market. Arthur J. Led by J. Patrick Gallagher Jr., public since 1984-06-20.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $199.13
- Expected Move
- 9.7%
- Implied High
- $218.37
- Implied Low
- $179.89
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) has an expected move of 9.66%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $179.89 to $218.37 from the current $199.13. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
AJG Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. pricing an expected move of 9.66% from $199.13, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for AJG derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $199.13 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 33.7% | 10.3% | $219.61 | $178.65 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 33.0% | 13.7% | $226.43 | $171.83 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 98 | 34.4% | 17.8% | $234.62 | $163.64 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 154 | 34.8% | 22.6% | $244.14 | $154.12 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 35.5% | 27.4% | $253.64 | $144.62 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 34.9% | 28.6% | $256.07 | $142.19 |
Frequently asked AJG expected move questions
- What is the current AJG expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) has an expected move of 9.66% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $179.89 to $218.37 from the current $199.13. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the AJG expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is AJG expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.