AGM Bear Put Spread Strategy
AGM (Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation), in the Financial Services sector, (Financial - Credit Services industry), listed on NYSE.
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation provides a secondary market for various loans made to borrowers in the United States. It operates through four segments: Farm & Ranch, USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) Guarantees, Rural Utilities, and Institutional Credit. The Farm & Ranch segment purchases and retains eligible mortgage loans that are secured by first liens on agricultural real estate; securitizes eligible mortgage loans, and guarantees the timely payment of principal and interest on securities representing interests in or obligations secured by pools of mortgage loans; and issues long-term standby purchase commitments (LTSPC) on designated eligible mortgage loans. The USDA Guarantees segment purchases portions of certain agricultural and rural development loans guaranteed by the USDA. The Rural Utilities segment purchases and guarantees securities that are backed by loans for electric or telecommunications facilities by lenders organized as cooperatives to borrowers; and purchases eligible rural utilities loans and guarantees of securities backed by those loans, as well as LTSPCs for pools of eligible rural utilities loans. The Institutional Credit segment guarantees and purchases general obligations of lenders and other financial institutions that are secured by pools of loans eligible under the Farmer Mac's Farm & Ranch, USDA Guarantees, or Rural Utilities lines of business.
AGM (Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation) trades in the Financial Services sector, specifically Financial - Credit Services, with a market capitalization of approximately $1.87B, a trailing P/E of 10.20, a beta of 1.04 versus the broader market, a 52-week range of 136.57-210.64, average daily share volume of 117K, a public-listing history dating back to 1994, approximately 191 full-time employees. These structural characteristics shape how AGM stock options price implied volatility around earnings windows, capital events, and macro-driven sector rotations.
A beta of 1.04 places AGM roughly in line with broader market moves, so the strategy payoff and realized volatility track the index-equivalent baseline. The trailing P/E of 10.20 is on the value side, where IV often compresses outside event windows because forward growth expectations are already discounted into the share price. AGM pays a dividend, which adjusts put-call parity and shifts the ex-dividend pricing across the listed chain.
What is a bear put spread on AGM?
A bear put spread buys an at-the-money put and sells an out-of-the-money put at a lower strike for defined risk and defined reward bounded by the strike width.
Current AGM snapshot
As of May 15, 2026, spot at $172.16, ATM IV 32.10%, IV rank 6.29%, expected move 9.20%. The bear put spread on AGM below is built from the same end-of-day chain, with strikes snapped to listed contracts and premiums pulled from the bid/ask midpoint at a 34-day expiry.
Why this bear put spread structure on AGM specifically: AGM IV at 32.10% is on the cheap side of its 1-year range, which favors premium-buying structures like a AGM bear put spread, with a market-implied 1-standard-deviation move of approximately 9.20% (roughly $15.84 on the underlying). The 34-day window matched to the front-month expiry keeps theta exposure bounded while still capturing the post-snapshot move; longer-dated AGM expiries trade a higher absolute premium for lower per-day decay. Position sizing on AGM should anchor to the underlying notional of $172.16 per share and to the trader's directional view on AGM stock.
AGM bear put spread setup
The AGM bear put spread below is built from the end-of-day chain, with each option leg priced at the bid/ask midpoint of its listed strike. With AGM near $172.16, the first option leg uses a $170.00 strike; additional legs (when the strategy has them) anchor to spot-relative offsets. Premiums come from the bid/ask midpoint on the listed AGM chain at a 34-day expiry; the cross-strike IV skew is reflected directly in the per-leg values rather than approximated. Quantity sizing assumes one contract per option leg (or 100 AGM shares for the stock leg in covered calls and collars).
| Action | Type | Strike / Basis | Premium (est) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy 1 | Put | $170.00 | $5.70 |
| Sell 1 | Put | $165.00 | $3.75 |
AGM bear put spread risk and reward
- Net Premium / Debit
- -$195.00
- Max Profit (per contract)
- $305.00
- Max Loss (per contract)
- -$195.00
- Breakeven(s)
- $168.05
- Risk / Reward Ratio
- 1.564
Max profit equals strike width minus net debit times 100; max loss equals net debit times 100. Breakeven is long-put strike minus net debit.
AGM bear put spread payoff curve
Modeled P&L at expiration across a range of underlying prices for the bear put spread on AGM. Each row is one sampled price point from the computed payoff curve; the full curve uses 200 price points internally before being summarized into 10 rows here.
| Underlying Price | % From Spot | P&L at Expiration |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | -100.0% | +$305.00 |
| $38.07 | -77.9% | +$305.00 |
| $76.14 | -55.8% | +$305.00 |
| $114.20 | -33.7% | +$305.00 |
| $152.27 | -11.6% | +$305.00 |
| $190.33 | +10.6% | -$195.00 |
| $228.40 | +32.7% | -$195.00 |
| $266.46 | +54.8% | -$195.00 |
| $304.53 | +76.9% | -$195.00 |
| $342.59 | +99.0% | -$195.00 |
When traders use bear put spread on AGM
Bear put spreads on AGM reduce the cost of a bearish AGM stock position by selling a lower-strike put; suited to moderate-decline theses where price reaches but does not vastly exceed the short strike.
AGM thesis for this bear put spread
The market-implied 1-standard-deviation range for AGM extends from approximately $156.32 on the downside to $188.00 on the upside. A AGM bear put spread caps both the risk and the reward of a bearish position; relative to an outright long put on AGM, the spread reduces the cost basis but limits the maximum profit to the strike width minus net debit. Current AGM IV rank near 6.29% sits in the lower third of its 1-year distribution, where IV often re-expands toward the mean; this favors premium-buying structures and disadvantages premium-selling structures on AGM at 32.10%. As a Financial Services name, AGM options can move on sector-level news flow (peer earnings, regulatory updates, industry-specific macro data) in addition to AGM-specific events.
AGM bear put spread positions are structurally moderately bearish; the modeled P&L assumes European-style exercise at expiration and ignores early assignment, transaction costs, dividends paid before expiry on the stock leg (when present), and the bid-ask spread on the listed chain. AGM positions also carry Financial Services sector concentration risk; news flow inside the sector (peer earnings, regulatory shifts, supply-chain headlines) can move AGM alongside the broader basket even when AGM-specific fundamentals are unchanged. Long-premium structures like a bear put spread on AGM are particularly exposed to IV-crush risk through scheduled events (earnings, FDA decisions, central-bank meetings) where IV typically contracts post-event regardless of the directional outcome. Always rebuild the position from current AGM chain quotes before placing a trade.
Frequently asked questions
- What is a bear put spread on AGM?
- A bear put spread on AGM is the bear put spread strategy applied to AGM (stock). The strategy is structurally moderately bearish: A bear put spread buys an at-the-money put and sells an out-of-the-money put at a lower strike for defined risk and defined reward bounded by the strike width. With AGM stock trading near $172.16, the strikes shown on this page are snapped to the nearest listed AGM chain strike and the premiums come straight from the end-of-day bid/ask midpoint.
- How are AGM bear put spread max profit and max loss calculated?
- Max profit equals strike width minus net debit times 100; max loss equals net debit times 100. Breakeven is long-put strike minus net debit. For the AGM bear put spread priced from the end-of-day chain at a 30-day expiry (ATM IV 32.10%), the computed maximum profit is $305.00 per contract and the computed maximum loss is -$195.00 per contract. Live intraday quotes will differ as the chain moves through the trading session.
- What is the breakeven for a AGM bear put spread?
- The breakeven for the AGM bear put spread priced on this page is roughly $168.05 at expiration, derived from end-of-day chain premiums. Breakeven is the underlying price at which the strategy's P&L crosses zero ignoring transaction costs and assignment risk. The current AGM market-implied 1-standard-deviation expected move is approximately 9.20%; if the move sits well outside the breakeven distance, the structure's risk-reward becomes correspondingly tighter.
- When should you consider a bear put spread on AGM?
- Bear put spreads on AGM reduce the cost of a bearish AGM stock position by selling a lower-strike put; suited to moderate-decline theses where price reaches but does not vastly exceed the short strike.
- How does current AGM implied volatility affect this bear put spread?
- AGM ATM IV is at 32.10% with IV rank near 6.29%, which is on the low end of its 1-year range. Premium-buying structures (long call, long put, debit spreads) are relatively cheap in this regime; premium-selling structures collect less credit per unit risk.