The AES Corporation (AES) IV/HV History
Comparing implied volatility to historical (realized) volatility reveals whether options are priced rich or cheap relative to actual price movement. Persistent gaps can signal trading opportunities.
The AES Corporation (AES) operates in the Utilities sector, specifically the Independent Power Producers industry, with a market capitalization near $10.46B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 9,100 people, carrying a beta of 0.95 to the broader market. The AES Corporation operates as an international enterprise primarily focused on electricity generation and distribution. Led by Andres Ricardo Gluski Weilert, public since 1991-06-26.
Snapshot as of Jun 30, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $14.64
- ATM IV
- 372.3%
- HV 20-Day
- 2.8%
- HV 60-Day
- 4.8%
- IV Rank
- 76.8%
- IV Percentile
- 97.6%
As of Jun 30, 2026, The AES Corporation (AES) ATM implied volatility is 372.3%. 20-day realized volatility is 2.8%, producing an IV-HV spread of +369.5 vol points. Options are pricing in more volatility than the stock has recently delivered, the volatility risk premium. IV rank is 76.8%.
How AES iv/hv history Data Feeds Strategy Selection
Strategy selection on The AES Corporation options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The iv/hv history view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 372.3% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the iv/hv history data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.
How to read the AES IV vs HV chart
The dual-line chart above tracks ATM implied volatility (forward-looking, what the chain is pricing) against 20-day realized historical volatility (backward-looking, what actually happened). ATM IV currently prints at 372.3%, 76.8% IV rank, against 2.8% realized over the trailing 20 trading days. Implied is pricing above realized by 369.5 vol points, the typical variance-risk-premium positive state in which premium sellers earn the gap. Persistent IV-above-HV is the variance-risk-premium-positive state typical of equity markets; persistent IV-below-HV is rare and usually marks underpriced vol that often expands.
AES IV/HV regimes and trade selection
AES sits in the top quartile of its 1-year IV range. High-IV-rank regimes statistically favor premium-selling - the elevated implied is more likely to mean-revert than to expand further. Iron condors, covered calls, and cash-secured puts collect more premium per unit of notional risk; size wings to the implied move and exit on first sign of HV catching up.
Using AES vol history alongside the term structure
The IV/HV gap on this page captures the level of premium; the term-structure slope on the volatility page captures its shape across expirations. Backwardation (negative slope -3.859) indicates acute near-term event risk - near-dated tenors price disproportionate vol. Pair the rank read with the slope read with the event calendar to choose the right tenor for the structure.
AES IV/HV signal in volatility-cycle context
Equity-vol cycles tend to compress and expand on multi-month timeframes: a typical sequence runs low-IV-rank consolidation (months of flat tape, decaying premium) into a vol-expansion catalyst (earnings miss, macro shock, regime change) into elevated-IV-rank stress (premiums fat, dispersion high) back to mean-reverting compression. AES's current 76.8% IV rank places the ticker in the expansion or stress phase of that cycle. Premium-selling carries the typical structural tailwind here, but the mean-reverting compression that completes the cycle has historically arrived sharply rather than gradually. The ratio of HV-20 (2.8%) to HV-60 (4.8%) gives a second cycle indicator: when 20-day exceeds 60-day, recent realization is running hotter than the trailing-quarter average - typically a sign that recent days have already started expanding vol regardless of where IV rank prints. Use the time series above to spot inflection points: meaningful IV/HV gap closures and openings tend to precede regime shifts by a few sessions.
Learn how implied vs realized volatility is reported and how to read the data →
Daily ATM implied volatility and 20-day realized (historical) volatility for AES over the last ~41 trading days. The IV-HV gap measures the variance risk premium - when IV trades persistently above realized HV, premium-sellers earn the spread; when IV dips below HV, vol is structurally underpriced.
Most recent 15 trading days (descending). Older history appears in the chart above.
| Date | ATM IV | HV 20d | HV 60d | IV Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 30, 2026 | 372.3% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 76.8% |
| Jun 29, 2026 | 347.2% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 71.6% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 13.3% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 2.5% |
| Jun 25, 2026 | 413.3% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 85.3% |
| Jun 24, 2026 | 395.4% | 2.6% | 5.2% | 81.6% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | 361.3% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 74.5% |
| Jun 22, 2026 | 381.4% | 2.6% | 5.3% | 78.7% |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 6.1% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 1.0% |
| Jun 17, 2026 | 139.8% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 28.7% |
| Jun 16, 2026 | 125.1% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 25.7% |
| Jun 15, 2026 | 58.0% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 11.8% |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 335.6% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 69.2% |
| Jun 11, 2026 | 77.6% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 15.8% |
| Jun 10, 2026 | 13.3% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 2.5% |
| Jun 9, 2026 | 113.9% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 23.3% |
AES highest implied-volatility contracts
| Type | Strike | Expiration | Volume | OI | IV | Bid | Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CALL | $14.50 | Jul 24, 2026 | 0 | 1.3K | 1000.0% | $0.15 | $0.36 |
| PUT | $14.50 | Jul 24, 2026 | 21 | 1.1K | 1000.0% | $0.08 | $0.11 |
| PUT | $15.00 | Jul 24, 2026 | 0 | 424 | 1000.0% | $0.06 | $0.50 |
| PUT | $13.00 | Nov 20, 2026 | 0 | 105 | 954.9% | $0.02 | $0.22 |
| PUT | $10.00 | Jan 21, 2028 | 0 | 765 | 954.6% | $0.12 | $0.21 |
| CALL | $12.00 | Jan 21, 2028 | 20 | 934 | 954.6% | $2.50 | $3.00 |
| PUT | $12.00 | Jan 21, 2028 | 1 | 1.4K | 954.6% | $0.11 | $0.37 |
| CALL | $14.00 | Aug 21, 2026 | 0 | 1.6K | 790.1% | $0.65 | $0.72 |
| PUT | $14.00 | Aug 21, 2026 | 1 | 13.8K | 790.1% | $0.08 | $0.15 |
| PUT | $15.00 | Jul 17, 2026 | 0 | 457 | 770.0% | $0.27 | $0.40 |
Top 10 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.
Frequently asked AES iv/hv history questions
- Is AES options pricing rich or cheap right now?
- As of Jun 30, 2026, The AES Corporation (AES) ATM IV is 372.3% against 20-day realized volatility of 2.8%. IV rank is 76.8%. AES options are pricing in more volatility than the stock has recently realized: a positive variance risk premium worth 369.5 vol points.
- What is the AES variance risk premium?
- The variance risk premium is the persistent gap between implied and subsequently realized volatility. In equity markets it averages positive because option sellers demand compensation for bearing variance shocks. AES is currently priced consistently with this premium, which is one input to whether short-vol or long-vol structures carry their typical edge.
- What does AES IV rank mean for strategy selection?
- IV rank normalizes the current ATM IV to its 1-year range: 0% is the low, 100% is the high. AES's current rank of 76.8% signals where current pricing sits in its own 1-year history. High-rank regimes typically favor premium-selling structures (credit spreads, condors, covered calls); low-rank regimes typically favor premium-buying or long-volatility structures.