American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Snapshot as of Apr 23, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $18.09
- Expected Move
- 17.5%
- Implied High
- $21.25
- Implied Low
- $14.93
- Front DTE
- 29 days
As of Apr 23, 2026, American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) has an expected move of 17.49% — a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $14.93 to $21.25 from the current $18.09. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
Per-expiration expected move for AEO derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $18.09 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions — roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | 1 | 80.8% | 4.2% | $18.86 | $17.32 |
| May 1, 2026 | 8 | 60.3% | 8.9% | $19.70 | $16.48 |
| May 8, 2026 | 15 | 61.4% | 12.4% | $20.34 | $15.84 |
| May 15, 2026 | 22 | 61.2% | 15.0% | $20.81 | $15.37 |
| May 22, 2026 | 29 | 59.4% | 16.7% | $21.12 | $15.06 |
| May 29, 2026 | 36 | 68.2% | 21.4% | $21.96 | $14.22 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 43 | 72.8% | 25.0% | $22.61 | $13.57 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 56 | 66.7% | 26.1% | $22.82 | $13.36 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 120 | 60.8% | 34.9% | $24.40 | $11.78 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 211 | 61.1% | 46.5% | $26.49 | $9.69 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 267 | 61.7% | 52.8% | $27.64 | $8.54 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 638 | 60.6% | 80.1% | $32.58 | $3.60 |