What is the current ADM expected move?

As of Jun 30, 2026, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) has an expected move of 9.09% over the next 17 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $69.19 to $83.03 from the current $76.11. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the ADM expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is ADM expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, specifically the Agricultural Farm Products industry, with a market capitalization near $37.01B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 42,383 people, carrying a beta of 0.60 to the broader market. Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) stands as a major global enterprise in the agricultural sector, focused on the sourcing, transportation, storage, processing, and distribution of a wide array of agricultural commodities, finished goods, and essential ingredients. Led by Juan Ricardo Luciano, public since 1980-03-17.

Snapshot as of Jun 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $76.11
Expected Move: 9.1%
Implied High: $83.03
Implied Low: $69.19
Front DTE: 17 days

As of Jun 30, 2026, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) has an expected move of 9.09%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $69.19 to $83.03 from the current $76.11. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

ADM Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Archer-Daniels-Midland Company pricing an expected move of 9.09% from $76.11, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the ADM implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 9.09%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $69.19 to $83.03. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

ADM expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. ADM term-structure is in contango (slope 0.029), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states.

Sizing ADM structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. ADM put/call volume ratio currently at 0.30 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for ADM derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $76.11 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Jul 17, 2026	17	31.7%	6.8%	$81.32	$70.90
Aug 21, 2026	52	34.6%	13.1%	$86.05	$66.17
Sep 18, 2026	80	32.7%	15.3%	$87.76	$64.46
Dec 18, 2026	171	33.6%	23.0%	$93.61	$58.61
Jan 15, 2027	199	33.8%	25.0%	$95.11	$57.11
Mar 19, 2027	262	34.2%	29.0%	$98.16	$54.06
Jun 17, 2027	352	35.1%	34.5%	$102.34	$49.88
Jan 21, 2028	570	36.4%	45.5%	$110.73	$41.49

Frequently asked ADM expected move questions

What is the current ADM expected move?: As of Jun 30, 2026, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) has an expected move of 9.09% over the next 17 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $69.19 to $83.03 from the current $76.11. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the ADM expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is ADM expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.