Apple Inc. (AAPL) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Apple Inc. (AAPL) operates in the Technology sector, specifically the Consumer Electronics industry, with a market capitalization near $4.41T, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 164,000 people, carrying a beta of 1.06 to the broader market. Apple Inc. Led by Timothy D. Cook, public since 1980-12-12.
Snapshot as of May 18, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $297.45
- Expected Move
- 6.7%
- Implied High
- $317.43
- Implied Low
- $277.47
- Front DTE
- 31 days
As of May 18, 2026, Apple Inc. (AAPL) has an expected move of 6.72%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $277.47 to $317.43 from the current $297.45. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
AAPL Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Apple Inc. pricing an expected move of 6.72% from $297.45, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the AAPL implied-range chart
The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 6.72%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $277.47 to $317.43. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
AAPL expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. AAPL term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.003), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.
Sizing AAPL structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. AAPL put/call volume ratio currently at 0.58 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for AAPL derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $297.45 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | 2 | 24.5% | 1.8% | $302.84 | $292.06 |
| May 22, 2026 | 4 | 25.8% | 2.7% | $305.48 | $289.42 |
| May 26, 2026 | 8 | 21.5% | 3.2% | $306.92 | $287.98 |
| May 27, 2026 | 9 | 21.9% | 3.4% | $307.68 | $287.22 |
| May 29, 2026 | 11 | 23.1% | 4.0% | $309.38 | $285.52 |
| Jun 1, 2026 | 14 | 21.5% | 4.2% | $309.97 | $284.93 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 18 | 22.8% | 5.1% | $312.51 | $282.39 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 25 | 24.2% | 6.3% | $316.29 | $278.61 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 31 | 23.3% | 6.8% | $317.65 | $277.25 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 39 | 23.0% | 7.5% | $319.81 | $275.09 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 60 | 22.9% | 9.3% | $325.07 | $269.83 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 95 | 24.9% | 12.7% | $335.24 | $259.66 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 123 | 25.0% | 14.5% | $340.62 | $254.28 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 151 | 25.2% | 16.2% | $345.66 | $249.24 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 186 | 26.0% | 18.6% | $352.66 | $242.24 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 214 | 25.9% | 19.8% | $356.44 | $238.46 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 242 | 25.8% | 21.0% | $359.94 | $234.96 |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 277 | 25.9% | 22.6% | $364.56 | $230.34 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 305 | 26.1% | 23.9% | $368.42 | $226.48 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 395 | 26.5% | 27.6% | $379.45 | $215.45 |
| Sep 17, 2027 | 487 | 27.1% | 31.3% | $390.56 | $204.34 |
| Dec 17, 2027 | 578 | 27.5% | 34.6% | $400.39 | $194.51 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 613 | 27.4% | 35.5% | $403.07 | $191.83 |
| Mar 17, 2028 | 669 | 27.5% | 37.2% | $408.19 | $186.71 |
| Dec 15, 2028 | 942 | 28.2% | 45.3% | $432.20 | $162.70 |
AAPL highest implied-volatility contracts
| Type | Strike | Expiration | Volume | OI | IV | Bid | Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CALL | $300.00 | Jun 18, 2026 | 4.8K | 83.9K | 23.1% | $7.25 | $7.50 |
| CALL | $295.00 | Jul 17, 2026 | 518 | 52.5K | 22.9% | $13.25 | $13.45 |
| CALL | $310.00 | Jun 18, 2026 | 6.0K | 40.3K | 22.9% | $3.50 | $3.60 |
| CALL | $320.00 | Aug 21, 2026 | 1.2K | 73.2K | 24.2% | $7.25 | $7.40 |
| CALL | $300.00 | May 22, 2026 | 20.2K | 10.1K | 25.7% | $2.20 | $2.25 |
| CALL | $290.00 | Jun 18, 2026 | 1.3K | 28.8K | 24.3% | $13.10 | $13.50 |
| CALL | $300.00 | Jul 17, 2026 | 3.7K | 30.9K | 22.6% | $10.55 | $10.85 |
| CALL | $280.00 | Jun 18, 2026 | 698 | 41.5K | 26.1% | $20.55 | $21.20 |
| CALL | $295.00 | Jun 18, 2026 | 2.1K | 24.7K | 23.6% | $9.95 | $10.15 |
| CALL | $310.00 | Jul 17, 2026 | 4.2K | 29.9K | 22.3% | $6.35 | $6.60 |
Top 10 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.
Frequently asked AAPL expected move questions
- What is the current AAPL expected move?
- As of May 18, 2026, Apple Inc. (AAPL) has an expected move of 6.72% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $277.47 to $317.43 from the current $297.45. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the AAPL expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is AAPL expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.