What is the current XND expected move?

As of May 29, 2026, Nasdaq-100 Micro Index (XND) has an expected move of 5.68% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $285.69 to $320.13 from the current $302.91. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the XND expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is XND expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Nasdaq-100 Micro Index (XND) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Snapshot as of May 29, 2026.

Spot Price: $302.91
Expected Move: 5.7%
Implied High: $320.13
Implied Low: $285.69
Front DTE: 28 days

As of May 29, 2026, Nasdaq-100 Micro Index (XND) has an expected move of 5.68%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $285.69 to $320.13 from the current $302.91. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

XND Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Nasdaq-100 Micro Index pricing an expected move of 5.68% from $302.91, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the XND implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 5.68%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $285.69 to $320.13. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

XND expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. XND term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.002), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.

Sizing XND structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. XND put/call volume ratio currently at 0.96 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for XND derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $302.91 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Jun 1, 2026	3	12.6%	1.1%	$306.37	$299.45
Jun 2, 2026	4	15.0%	1.6%	$307.67	$298.15
Jun 3, 2026	5	16.1%	1.9%	$308.62	$297.20
Jun 4, 2026	6	16.9%	2.2%	$309.47	$296.35
Jun 5, 2026	7	17.8%	2.5%	$310.38	$295.44
Jun 12, 2026	14	18.8%	3.7%	$314.06	$291.76
Jun 18, 2026	20	19.7%	4.6%	$316.88	$288.94
Jun 26, 2026	28	19.9%	5.5%	$319.61	$286.21
Jul 2, 2026	34	19.7%	6.0%	$321.12	$284.70
Jul 17, 2026	49	20.5%	7.5%	$325.66	$280.16
Aug 21, 2026	84	21.7%	10.4%	$334.44	$271.38
Sep 18, 2026	112	22.3%	12.4%	$340.33	$265.49
Oct 16, 2026	140	22.5%	13.9%	$345.12	$260.70
Nov 20, 2026	175	23.0%	15.9%	$351.15	$254.67
Dec 18, 2026	203	23.1%	17.2%	$355.09	$250.73
Jan 15, 2027	231	23.1%	18.4%	$358.58	$247.24
Feb 19, 2027	266	23.3%	19.9%	$363.16	$242.66
Mar 19, 2027	294	23.4%	21.0%	$366.52	$239.30
Apr 16, 2027	322	23.4%	22.0%	$369.49	$236.33
May 21, 2027	357	23.8%	23.5%	$374.21	$231.61
Jun 17, 2027	384	23.8%	24.4%	$376.86	$228.96
Dec 17, 2027	567	23.8%	29.7%	$392.76	$213.06

Frequently asked XND expected move questions

What is the current XND expected move?: As of May 29, 2026, Nasdaq-100 Micro Index (XND) has an expected move of 5.68% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $285.69 to $320.13 from the current $302.91. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the XND expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is XND expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.