Nasdaq-100 Micro Index (XND) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Snapshot as of Oct 9, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $308.53
- Expected Move
- 5.1%
- Implied High
- $324.33
- Implied Low
- $292.73
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of Oct 9, 2026, Nasdaq-100 Micro Index (XND) has an expected move of 5.12%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $292.73 to $324.33 from the current $308.53. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
XND Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Nasdaq-100 Micro Index pricing an expected move of 5.12% from $308.53, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the XND implied-range chart
The shaded range below shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 5.12%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $292.73 to $324.33. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
XND expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. XND term-structure is in contango (slope 0.002), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. With IV rank at 23.8%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical XND range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.
Sizing XND structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. XND put/call volume ratio currently at 0.53 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for XND derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $308.53 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | 3 | 8.8% | 0.8% | $310.99 | $306.07 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 4 | 10.8% | 1.1% | $312.02 | $305.04 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 5 | 13.3% | 1.6% | $313.33 | $303.73 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 6 | 14.1% | 1.8% | $314.11 | $302.95 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 7 | 14.8% | 2.0% | $314.85 | $302.21 |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 10 | 13.8% | 2.3% | $315.58 | $301.48 |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 11 | 14.2% | 2.5% | $316.14 | $300.92 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 12 | 14.6% | 2.6% | $316.70 | $300.36 |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 13 | 14.9% | 2.8% | $317.21 | $299.85 |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 14 | 15.7% | 3.1% | $318.02 | $299.04 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 21 | 17.0% | 4.1% | $321.11 | $295.95 |
| Nov 6, 2026 | 28 | 17.8% | 4.9% | $323.74 | $293.32 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 35 | 18.0% | 5.6% | $325.73 | $291.33 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 42 | 18.3% | 6.2% | $327.68 | $289.38 |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 49 | 18.2% | 6.7% | $329.10 | $287.96 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 70 | 19.2% | 8.4% | $334.47 | $282.59 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 98 | 19.3% | 10.0% | $339.38 | $277.68 |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 133 | 19.6% | 11.8% | $345.03 | $272.03 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 161 | 20.2% | 13.4% | $349.92 | $267.14 |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 189 | 20.5% | 14.8% | $354.04 | $263.02 |
| May 21, 2027 | 224 | 21.1% | 16.5% | $359.53 | $257.53 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 251 | 21.1% | 17.5% | $362.51 | $254.55 |
| Jul 16, 2027 | 280 | 21.4% | 18.7% | $366.36 | $250.70 |
| Aug 20, 2027 | 315 | 21.6% | 20.1% | $370.44 | $246.62 |
| Sep 17, 2027 | 343 | 21.8% | 21.1% | $373.73 | $243.33 |
| Oct 15, 2027 | 371 | 21.9% | 22.1% | $376.65 | $240.41 |
| Nov 19, 2027 | 406 | 22.0% | 23.2% | $380.12 | $236.94 |
| Dec 17, 2027 | 434 | 22.0% | 24.0% | $382.54 | $234.52 |
Frequently asked XND expected move questions
- What is the current XND expected move?
- As of Oct 9, 2026, Nasdaq-100 Micro Index (XND) has an expected move of 5.12% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $292.73 to $324.33 from the current $308.53. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the XND expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is XND expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.