Nasdaq-100 Micro Index (XND) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Snapshot as of Jul 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $295.38
- Expected Move
- 6.6%
- Implied High
- $314.77
- Implied Low
- $275.99
- Front DTE
- 30 days
As of Jul 15, 2026, Nasdaq-100 Micro Index (XND) has an expected move of 6.57%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $275.99 to $314.77 from the current $295.38. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
XND Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Nasdaq-100 Micro Index pricing an expected move of 6.57% from $295.38, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the XND implied-range chart
The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 6.57%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $275.99 to $314.77. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
XND expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. XND term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.001), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.
Sizing XND structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. XND put/call volume ratio currently at 1.97 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for XND derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $295.38 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2026 | 1 | 22.1% | 1.2% | $298.80 | $291.96 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 2 | 22.2% | 1.6% | $300.23 | $290.53 |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 5 | 18.0% | 2.1% | $301.60 | $289.16 |
| Jul 21, 2026 | 6 | 18.9% | 2.4% | $302.54 | $288.22 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | 7 | 19.5% | 2.7% | $303.36 | $287.40 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 9 | 22.0% | 3.5% | $305.58 | $285.18 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 16 | 23.3% | 4.9% | $309.79 | $280.97 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | 23 | 23.1% | 5.8% | $312.51 | $278.25 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | 30 | 22.9% | 6.6% | $314.77 | $275.99 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 37 | 22.8% | 7.3% | $316.82 | $273.94 |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 44 | 23.1% | 8.0% | $319.07 | $271.69 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 65 | 23.3% | 9.8% | $324.42 | $266.34 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 93 | 23.6% | 11.9% | $330.57 | $260.19 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 128 | 24.3% | 14.4% | $337.89 | $252.87 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 156 | 24.5% | 16.0% | $342.69 | $248.07 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 184 | 24.7% | 17.5% | $347.18 | $243.58 |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 219 | 24.8% | 19.2% | $352.12 | $238.64 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 247 | 25.1% | 20.6% | $356.37 | $234.39 |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 275 | 25.3% | 22.0% | $360.25 | $230.51 |
| May 21, 2027 | 310 | 25.6% | 23.6% | $365.07 | $225.69 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 337 | 25.8% | 24.8% | $368.61 | $222.15 |
| Jul 16, 2027 | 366 | 25.7% | 25.7% | $371.40 | $219.36 |
| Dec 17, 2027 | 520 | 25.8% | 30.8% | $386.34 | $204.42 |
Frequently asked XND expected move questions
- What is the current XND expected move?
- As of Jul 15, 2026, Nasdaq-100 Micro Index (XND) has an expected move of 6.57% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $275.99 to $314.77 from the current $295.38. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the XND expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is XND expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.