S&P 500 Index (SPX) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Snapshot as of May 1, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $7244.02
- Expected Move
- 3.9%
- Implied High
- $7529.84
- Implied Low
- $6958.20
- Front DTE
- 31 days
As of May 1, 2026, S&P 500 Index (SPX) has an expected move of 3.95% — a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $6958.20 to $7529.84 from the current $7244.02. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
Per-expiration expected move for SPX derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $7244.02 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions — roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 4, 2026 | 3 | 8.1% | 0.7% | $7297.22 | $7190.82 |
| May 5, 2026 | 4 | 9.5% | 1.0% | $7316.06 | $7171.98 |
| May 6, 2026 | 5 | 10.4% | 1.2% | $7332.20 | $7155.84 |
| May 7, 2026 | 6 | 11.0% | 1.4% | $7346.18 | $7141.86 |
| May 8, 2026 | 7 | 11.9% | 1.6% | $7363.40 | $7124.64 |
| May 11, 2026 | 10 | 11.5% | 1.9% | $7381.91 | $7106.13 |
| May 12, 2026 | 11 | 12.1% | 2.1% | $7396.18 | $7091.86 |
| May 13, 2026 | 12 | 12.3% | 2.2% | $7405.58 | $7082.46 |
| May 14, 2026 | 13 | 12.6% | 2.4% | $7416.28 | $7071.76 |
| May 15, 2026 | 14 | 12.9% | 2.5% | $7427.04 | $7061.00 |
| May 18, 2026 | 17 | 12.7% | 2.7% | $7442.57 | $7045.47 |
| May 19, 2026 | 18 | 12.9% | 2.9% | $7451.54 | $7036.50 |
| May 20, 2026 | 19 | 13.1% | 3.0% | $7460.53 | $7027.51 |
| May 21, 2026 | 20 | 13.6% | 3.2% | $7474.63 | $7013.41 |
| May 22, 2026 | 21 | 13.8% | 3.3% | $7483.81 | $7004.23 |
| May 26, 2026 | 25 | 13.4% | 3.5% | $7498.06 | $6989.98 |
| May 27, 2026 | 26 | 13.6% | 3.6% | $7506.96 | $6981.08 |
| May 28, 2026 | 27 | 13.7% | 3.7% | $7513.94 | $6974.10 |
| May 29, 2026 | 28 | 13.9% | 3.8% | $7522.91 | $6965.13 |
| Jun 1, 2026 | 31 | 13.7% | 4.0% | $7533.24 | $6954.80 |
| Jun 2, 2026 | 32 | 13.8% | 4.1% | $7540.02 | $6948.02 |
| Jun 3, 2026 | 33 | 13.9% | 4.2% | $7546.78 | $6941.26 |
| Jun 4, 2026 | 34 | 14.1% | 4.3% | $7555.76 | $6932.28 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 35 | 14.3% | 4.4% | $7564.80 | $6923.24 |
| Jun 8, 2026 | 38 | 14.0% | 4.5% | $7571.25 | $6916.79 |
| Jun 9, 2026 | 39 | 14.1% | 4.6% | $7577.90 | $6910.14 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 42 | 14.5% | 4.9% | $7600.33 | $6887.71 |
| Jun 15, 2026 | 45 | 14.3% | 5.0% | $7607.75 | $6880.29 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 48 | 14.7% | 5.3% | $7630.18 | $6857.86 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 56 | 14.7% | 5.8% | $7661.12 | $6826.92 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | 60 | 14.7% | 6.0% | $7675.76 | $6812.28 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 77 | 15.2% | 7.0% | $7749.75 | $6738.29 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 91 | 15.6% | 7.8% | $7808.28 | $6679.76 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 112 | 15.9% | 8.8% | $7882.05 | $6605.99 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 122 | 16.0% | 9.3% | $7914.11 | $6573.93 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 140 | 16.4% | 10.2% | $7979.79 | $6508.25 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 152 | 16.5% | 10.6% | $8015.35 | $6472.69 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 168 | 16.8% | 11.4% | $8069.67 | $6418.37 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 182 | 17.0% | 12.0% | $8113.61 | $6374.43 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 203 | 17.2% | 12.8% | $8173.22 | $6314.82 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 231 | 17.5% | 13.9% | $8252.53 | $6235.51 |
| Dec 31, 2026 | 244 | 17.6% | 14.4% | $8286.43 | $6201.61 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 259 | 17.7% | 14.9% | $8324.10 | $6163.94 |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 294 | 17.9% | 16.1% | $8407.77 | $6080.27 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 322 | 18.1% | 17.0% | $8475.53 | $6012.51 |
| Mar 31, 2027 | 334 | 18.2% | 17.4% | $8505.20 | $5982.84 |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 350 | 18.3% | 17.9% | $8542.15 | $5945.89 |
| May 21, 2027 | 385 | 18.5% | 19.0% | $8620.39 | $5867.65 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 412 | 18.6% | 19.8% | $8675.53 | $5812.51 |
| Sep 17, 2027 | 504 | 18.9% | 22.2% | $8852.85 | $5635.19 |
| Dec 17, 2027 | 595 | 19.1% | 24.4% | $9010.57 | $5477.47 |
| Dec 15, 2028 | 959 | 19.6% | 31.8% | $9545.45 | $4942.59 |
| Dec 21, 2029 | 1330 | 20.0% | 38.2% | $10009.62 | $4478.42 |
| Dec 20, 2030 | 1694 | 20.1% | 43.3% | $10380.81 | $4107.23 |
| Dec 19, 2031 | 2058 | 20.0% | 47.5% | $10684.23 | $3803.81 |