Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Snapshot as of Oct 14, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $29950.82
- Expected Move
- 5.7%
- Implied High
- $31668.14
- Implied Low
- $28233.49
- Front DTE
- 30 days
As of Oct 14, 2026, Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) has an expected move of 5.73%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $28233.49 to $31668.14 from the current $29950.82. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
NDX Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Nasdaq-100 Index pricing an expected move of 5.73% from $29950.82, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the NDX implied-range chart
The shaded range below shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 5.73%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $28233.49 to $31668.14. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
NDX expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. NDX term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.005), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.
Sizing NDX structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. NDX put/call volume ratio currently at 1.43 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for NDX derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $29950.82 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 1 | 24.4% | 1.3% | $30333.33 | $29568.30 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 2 | 22.9% | 1.7% | $30458.52 | $29443.11 |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 5 | 17.7% | 2.1% | $30571.29 | $29330.35 |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 6 | 18.3% | 2.3% | $30653.55 | $29248.09 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 7 | 18.6% | 2.6% | $30722.30 | $29179.34 |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 8 | 19.3% | 2.9% | $30806.60 | $29095.03 |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 9 | 19.5% | 3.1% | $30867.92 | $29033.71 |
| Oct 26, 2026 | 12 | 18.3% | 3.3% | $30944.63 | $28957.01 |
| Oct 27, 2026 | 13 | 18.6% | 3.5% | $31002.16 | $28899.47 |
| Oct 28, 2026 | 14 | 19.3% | 3.8% | $31082.91 | $28818.72 |
| Oct 29, 2026 | 15 | 20.1% | 4.1% | $31171.22 | $28730.41 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 16 | 20.5% | 4.3% | $31236.33 | $28665.30 |
| Nov 2, 2026 | 19 | 19.3% | 4.4% | $31269.67 | $28631.96 |
| Nov 3, 2026 | 20 | 19.6% | 4.6% | $31324.96 | $28576.67 |
| Nov 4, 2026 | 21 | 20.0% | 4.8% | $31387.63 | $28514.00 |
| Nov 5, 2026 | 22 | 20.0% | 4.9% | $31421.45 | $28480.19 |
| Nov 6, 2026 | 23 | 20.3% | 5.1% | $31477.05 | $28424.58 |
| Nov 9, 2026 | 26 | 19.7% | 5.3% | $31525.58 | $28376.05 |
| Nov 10, 2026 | 27 | 19.7% | 5.4% | $31555.58 | $28346.05 |
| Nov 11, 2026 | 28 | 19.8% | 5.5% | $31593.32 | $28308.31 |
| Nov 12, 2026 | 29 | 19.9% | 5.6% | $31630.84 | $28270.80 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 30 | 20.0% | 5.7% | $31668.14 | $28233.49 |
| Nov 16, 2026 | 33 | 19.5% | 5.9% | $31706.93 | $28194.70 |
| Nov 17, 2026 | 34 | 19.6% | 6.0% | $31742.49 | $28159.15 |
| Nov 18, 2026 | 35 | 19.8% | 6.1% | $31787.19 | $28114.44 |
| Nov 19, 2026 | 36 | 20.0% | 6.3% | $31832.05 | $28069.58 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 37 | 19.9% | 6.3% | $31848.47 | $28053.17 |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 44 | 19.3% | 6.7% | $31957.81 | $27943.82 |
| Nov 30, 2026 | 47 | 19.1% | 6.9% | $32003.61 | $27898.03 |
| Dec 4, 2026 | 51 | 19.6% | 7.3% | $32145.15 | $27756.48 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 65 | 19.9% | 8.4% | $32466.01 | $27435.62 |
| Dec 31, 2026 | 78 | 19.8% | 9.2% | $32692.23 | $27209.40 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 93 | 19.9% | 10.0% | $32959.38 | $26942.26 |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 128 | 20.0% | 11.8% | $33498.10 | $26403.53 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 156 | 20.4% | 13.3% | $33945.24 | $25956.40 |
| Mar 31, 2027 | 168 | 20.6% | 14.0% | $34136.68 | $25764.95 |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 184 | 20.6% | 14.6% | $34331.45 | $25570.18 |
| May 21, 2027 | 219 | 20.9% | 16.2% | $34799.58 | $25102.05 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 246 | 21.1% | 17.3% | $35138.96 | $24762.68 |
| Jun 30, 2027 | 259 | 21.2% | 17.9% | $35299.52 | $24602.11 |
| Jul 16, 2027 | 275 | 21.1% | 18.3% | $35436.25 | $24465.38 |
| Sep 17, 2027 | 338 | 21.5% | 20.7% | $36147.49 | $23754.14 |
| Dec 17, 2027 | 429 | 21.7% | 23.5% | $36996.95 | $22904.68 |
| Dec 15, 2028 | 793 | 22.2% | 32.7% | $39751.38 | $20150.25 |
| Dec 21, 2029 | 1164 | 21.9% | 39.1% | $41664.22 | $18237.41 |
Frequently asked NDX expected move questions
- What is the current NDX expected move?
- As of Oct 14, 2026, Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) has an expected move of 5.73% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $28233.49 to $31668.14 from the current $29950.82. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the NDX expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is NDX expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.