Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Snapshot as of May 29, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $30366.00
- Expected Move
- 5.6%
- Implied High
- $32074.51
- Implied Low
- $28657.49
- Front DTE
- 31 days
As of May 29, 2026, Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) has an expected move of 5.63%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $28657.49 to $32074.51 from the current $30366.00. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
NDX Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Nasdaq-100 Index pricing an expected move of 5.63% from $30366.00, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the NDX implied-range chart
The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 5.63%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $28657.49 to $32074.51. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
NDX expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. NDX term-structure is in contango (slope 0.002), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states.
Sizing NDX structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. NDX put/call volume ratio currently at 1.29 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for NDX derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $30366.00 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1, 2026 | 3 | 12.8% | 1.2% | $30718.38 | $30013.62 |
| Jun 2, 2026 | 4 | 15.0% | 1.6% | $30842.83 | $29889.17 |
| Jun 3, 2026 | 5 | 16.0% | 1.9% | $30934.65 | $29797.35 |
| Jun 4, 2026 | 6 | 17.0% | 2.2% | $31027.86 | $29704.14 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 7 | 17.9% | 2.5% | $31118.74 | $29613.26 |
| Jun 8, 2026 | 10 | 16.9% | 2.8% | $31215.43 | $29516.57 |
| Jun 9, 2026 | 11 | 17.4% | 3.0% | $31283.25 | $29448.75 |
| Jun 10, 2026 | 12 | 18.2% | 3.3% | $31368.08 | $29363.92 |
| Jun 11, 2026 | 13 | 18.5% | 3.5% | $31426.19 | $29305.81 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 14 | 18.9% | 3.7% | $31490.00 | $29242.00 |
| Jun 15, 2026 | 17 | 18.3% | 3.9% | $31565.27 | $29166.73 |
| Jun 16, 2026 | 18 | 18.6% | 4.1% | $31620.27 | $29111.73 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | 19 | 19.4% | 4.4% | $31710.06 | $29021.94 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 20 | 19.6% | 4.6% | $31759.20 | $28972.80 |
| Jun 22, 2026 | 24 | 18.9% | 4.8% | $31837.66 | $28894.34 |
| Jun 23, 2026 | 25 | 19.2% | 5.0% | $31891.85 | $28840.15 |
| Jun 24, 2026 | 26 | 19.4% | 5.2% | $31938.28 | $28793.72 |
| Jun 25, 2026 | 27 | 19.7% | 5.4% | $31993.01 | $28738.99 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 28 | 19.9% | 5.5% | $32039.68 | $28692.32 |
| Jun 29, 2026 | 31 | 19.5% | 5.7% | $32091.67 | $28640.33 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | 32 | 19.7% | 5.8% | $32137.26 | $28594.74 |
| Jul 1, 2026 | 33 | 19.8% | 6.0% | $32173.85 | $28558.15 |
| Jul 2, 2026 | 34 | 20.1% | 6.1% | $32228.84 | $28503.16 |
| Jul 6, 2026 | 38 | 19.4% | 6.3% | $32266.79 | $28465.21 |
| Jul 10, 2026 | 42 | 20.2% | 6.9% | $32446.74 | $28285.26 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 49 | 20.5% | 7.5% | $32646.83 | $28085.17 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 56 | 20.8% | 8.1% | $32839.99 | $27892.01 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 63 | 21.2% | 8.8% | $33040.53 | $27691.47 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 84 | 21.8% | 10.5% | $33541.68 | $27190.32 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 94 | 21.9% | 11.1% | $33740.82 | $26991.18 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 112 | 22.3% | 12.4% | $34117.08 | $26614.92 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 124 | 22.4% | 13.1% | $34330.62 | $26401.38 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 140 | 22.7% | 14.1% | $34635.03 | $26096.97 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 175 | 23.2% | 16.1% | $35244.09 | $25487.91 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 203 | 23.5% | 17.5% | $35687.79 | $25044.21 |
| Dec 31, 2026 | 216 | 23.5% | 18.1% | $35855.54 | $24876.46 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 231 | 23.6% | 18.8% | $36067.10 | $24664.90 |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 266 | 23.7% | 20.2% | $36509.71 | $24222.29 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 294 | 23.8% | 21.4% | $36852.21 | $23879.79 |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 322 | 23.9% | 22.4% | $37182.59 | $23549.41 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 384 | 24.3% | 24.9% | $37934.54 | $22797.46 |
| Sep 17, 2027 | 476 | 24.3% | 27.8% | $38792.57 | $21939.43 |
| Dec 17, 2027 | 567 | 24.4% | 30.4% | $39600.70 | $21131.30 |
| Dec 15, 2028 | 931 | 24.4% | 39.0% | $42199.30 | $18532.70 |
| Dec 21, 2029 | 1302 | 24.0% | 45.3% | $44130.42 | $16601.58 |
Frequently asked NDX expected move questions
- What is the current NDX expected move?
- As of May 29, 2026, Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) has an expected move of 5.63% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $28657.49 to $32074.51 from the current $30366.00. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the NDX expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is NDX expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.