Dow Jones Industrial Average (1/100) (DJX) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Snapshot as of Aug 28, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $536.15
- Expected Move
- 3.2%
- Implied High
- $553.21
- Implied Low
- $519.09
- Front DTE
- 33 days
As of Aug 28, 2026, Dow Jones Industrial Average (1/100) (DJX) has an expected move of 3.18%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $519.09 to $553.21 from the current $536.15. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
DJX Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Dow Jones Industrial Average (1/100) pricing an expected move of 3.18% from $536.15, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the DJX implied-range chart
The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 3.18%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $519.09 to $553.21. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
DJX expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. DJX term-structure is in contango (slope 0.009), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. With IV rank at 3.8%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical DJX range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.
Sizing DJX structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. DJX put/call volume ratio currently at 1.24 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for DJX derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $536.15 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | 3 | 7.4% | 0.7% | $539.75 | $532.55 |
| Sep 1, 2026 | 4 | 8.1% | 0.8% | $540.70 | $531.60 |
| Sep 2, 2026 | 5 | 8.3% | 1.0% | $541.36 | $530.94 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | 6 | 8.9% | 1.1% | $542.27 | $530.03 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 7 | 7.5% | 1.0% | $541.72 | $530.58 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 21 | 10.7% | 2.6% | $549.91 | $522.39 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 33 | 11.1% | 3.3% | $554.04 | $518.26 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 49 | 12.0% | 4.4% | $559.72 | $512.58 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 84 | 13.0% | 6.2% | $569.59 | $502.71 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 112 | 13.2% | 7.3% | $575.35 | $496.95 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 203 | 14.2% | 10.6% | $592.93 | $479.37 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 293 | 15.1% | 13.5% | $608.69 | $463.61 |
| Dec 17, 2027 | 476 | 16.2% | 18.5% | $635.34 | $436.96 |
| Jun 16, 2028 | 658 | 16.6% | 22.3% | $655.65 | $416.65 |
| Dec 15, 2028 | 840 | 16.7% | 25.3% | $671.98 | $400.32 |
Frequently asked DJX expected move questions
- What is the current DJX expected move?
- As of Aug 28, 2026, Dow Jones Industrial Average (1/100) (DJX) has an expected move of 3.18% over the next 33 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $519.09 to $553.21 from the current $536.15. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the DJX expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is DJX expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.