What is the current ZNZ6 expected move?

As of Oct 15, 2026, 10-Year Treasury Note Futures (December 2026) (ZNZ6) has an expected move of 1.79% over the next 36 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $103.59 to $107.38 from the current $105.48. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the ZNZ6 expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is ZNZ6 expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

10-Year Treasury Note Futures (December 2026) (ZNZ6) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

10-Year Treasury Note Futures (December 2026) (ZNZ6) operates in the Interest-Rate Futures sector, specifically the Interest-Rate Futures industry, listed on CBOT. 10-Year Treasury Note Futures December 2026 contract: CBOT 10-Year Treasury Note futures (ZN): the most liquid US Treasury futures contract, used for duration hedging and curve trading.

Snapshot as of Oct 15, 2026.

Spot Price: $105.48
Expected Move: 1.8%
Implied High: $107.38
Implied Low: $103.59
Front DTE: 36 days

As of Oct 15, 2026, 10-Year Treasury Note Futures (December 2026) (ZNZ6) has an expected move of 1.79%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $103.59 to $107.38 from the current $105.48. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

ZNZ6 Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With 10-Year Treasury Note Futures (December 2026) pricing an expected move of 1.79% from $105.48, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the ZNZ6 implied-range chart

The shaded range below shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 1.79%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $103.59 to $107.38. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

ZNZ6 expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move.

Sizing ZNZ6 structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. ZNZ6 put/call volume ratio currently at 0.84 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for ZNZ6 derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $105.48 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 16, 2026	1	7.7%	0.4%	$105.91	$105.06
Oct 23, 2026	8	6.0%	0.9%	$106.42	$104.55
Oct 30, 2026	15	6.2%	1.3%	$106.81	$104.16
Nov 6, 2026	22	6.5%	1.6%	$107.16	$103.80
Nov 20, 2026	36	6.3%	2.0%	$107.56	$103.41

Frequently asked ZNZ6 expected move questions

What is the current ZNZ6 expected move?: As of Oct 15, 2026, 10-Year Treasury Note Futures (December 2026) (ZNZ6) has an expected move of 1.79% over the next 36 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $103.59 to $107.38 from the current $105.48. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the ZNZ6 expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is ZNZ6 expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.