5-Year Treasury Note Futures (December 2026) (ZFZ6) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

5-Year Treasury Note Futures (December 2026) (ZFZ6) operates in the Interest-Rate Futures sector, specifically the Interest-Rate Futures industry, listed on CBOT. 5-Year Treasury Note Futures December 2026 contract: CBOT 5-Year Treasury Note futures (ZF): intermediate-maturity US Treasury futures used for curve and duration trades.

Snapshot as of Oct 5, 2026.

Spot Price

$103.42

Expected Move

1.3%

Implied High

$104.79

Implied Low

$102.05

Front DTE

18 days

As of Oct 5, 2026, 5-Year Treasury Note Futures (December 2026) (ZFZ6) has an expected move of 1.33%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $102.05 to $104.79 from the current $103.42. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

ZFZ6 Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With 5-Year Treasury Note Futures (December 2026) pricing an expected move of 1.33% from $103.42, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the ZFZ6 implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 1.33%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $102.05 to $104.79. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

ZFZ6 expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. ZFZ6 term-structure is in contango (slope 0.002), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states.

Sizing ZFZ6 structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. ZFZ6 put/call volume ratio currently at 1.01 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Per-expiration expected move for ZFZ6 derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $103.42 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Frequently asked ZFZ6 expected move questions

What is the current ZFZ6 expected move?

As of Oct 5, 2026, 5-Year Treasury Note Futures (December 2026) (ZFZ6) has an expected move of 1.33% over the next 18 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $102.05 to $104.79 from the current $103.42. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the ZFZ6 expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is ZFZ6 expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.